Stronger economy on the horizon, experts say

The sub-index of new orders decreased at a slower pace, which was an indication of marginal improvement in domestic demand.

But the new export orders sub-index was still below the 50 point that separates expansion from contraction, indicating deteriorating export conditions.

Container throughput also strengthened in April. For the top 10 ports, throughput increased 7 percent year-on-year, up from 6.3 percent in March.

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"Based on indicators across the board, I feel that the economy still faces downward pressure. The downturn could last for a while," Chen said. "But as the leading indicators have touched bottom, there is a possibility that the decline will slow."

He forecast that GDP growth in the second quarter could dip to 7.3 percent from 7.4 percent in the first quarter.

Economic growth could pick up in the third or fourth quarters.

"After a certain period of time, I think the economy's performance will be better than pessimists have predicted.

"Overall, we could more or less achieve the official goal of 'about 7.5 percent' growth," he said.

Song Li, another researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Institute, said although many economists believe the property market has begun a long downswing, the current weakening shows the market is reaching some sort of "equilibrium".

He added: "When Japan's property prices went into a structural drop, its urbanization rate had exceeded 60 percent. Here in China, the real rate is less than 40 percent."

Many people who live in Chinese cities are rural migrants and lack hukou (legal residence) for the cities where they work.

The facts and figures have convinced economists that it's not time for intensive stimulus.

Chen agreed with the term "fine-tuning" to describe the central government's response to the slowdown.

"It is not an 'all-out' stimulus. It's a series of measures that hedge possible risk," he said.

Wang Tao, chief China economist with UBS AG, used the term "soft growth, soft stimulus" to describe the situation.

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