China is exception in bleak picture for BRICS nations

Sharma, 39, who lives in New York, is a well-known figure, particularly in his native India, where his book was a No 1 bestseller.

A regular on TV channels such as CNN, Bloomberg and CNBC, he is also a columnist for Newsweek and writes for The New York Times, Financial Times and Foreign Policy magazine. His day job, however, is to manage more than $25 billion as head of Morgan Stanley's emerging markets equity team.

He says this means that, unlike some theoretical economists, his feet are firmly planted in the real world.

"The problem in the academic world is that you have perma bulls and perma bears. They have these rigid views whereas I think for me my views evolve."

He also says he has a problem with making long term forecasts such as the often turbo-charged ones about China's future and prefers to restrict his horizon to three to five years.

"It is very difficult to make predictions beyond that sort of horizon. Nobody knew 30 years ago that China could grow at 10 percent a year for 30 years so that is why I have evolving views."

Sharma, courteous and considered, says slowing growth for China should no longer be the frightening prospect it once seemed and may no longer result in higher unemployment and consequent social problems.

"I have been in China for the past few days and my reading of the situation is that growth has already slowed and it has not led to any employment pressure. I think China can achieve its economic dream with 5 to 6 percent economic growth and I think that would be more sustainable than the 7 to 8 percent which they (policymakers) want to officially achieve," he said.

Making wrong policy changes has what in Sharma's view fatally undermined other BRICS countries, particularly Brazil, which, although achieving middle income status a long time ago, remains on a yo-yo course and not on an "upward trajectory" like China.

"In Brazil, government spending is 40 percent of GDP which is way higher than even China. The government is meddlesome and very interventionist and this has consistently held down the economy," he says.

"One of the mistakes Brazil made was to institute a welfare state prematurely and the price it is paying for that is very high taxes on business."

Sharma says showcasing the country by holding the World Cup next year and the Olympics in 2016 might backfire.

"I don't think hosting the Olympics or the World Cup for a large economy like Brazil can be a gamechanger. I think it has never been for any country.

"Beijing hosted the Games in 2008 but today you barely remember it, despite it being seen as a success. It is done and dusted. In China what has mattered is the big reforms in, say, agriculture and State-owned enterprises, which have been carried out systematically."

Sharma is also negative about the prospects about India, where, after graduating from Shri Ram College of Commerce in Delhi, he began his career at a securities trading company. It was, in fact, a sideline writing columns for leading Indian newspapers that led to Morgan Stanley recruiting him for its Mumbai office in 1996.

He argues that India with a 2012 per capita income of $1,489, making it a low-middle income country, according to the World Bank, will find it difficult to build on the growth it has seen over the last decade.

"I think a lot of people have prospered in India over the last decade but I don't believe a country with an economic model where manufacturing does so poorly can do well. I think that is a major drag on its development."

Sharma says many people make the mistake of comparing India and China as rivals when there are vast differences.