Opinion

More concerns than cheers

By Yi Xianrong (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-08-10 15:05

The largest developing nation must make more efforts to boost its low per capita GDP and economic quality

The fact that China is overtaking Japan to become the second largest economy in the world is not a matter of exultation given that the country still has miles to go before it can become a real economic power.

Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, noted recently that China has been surpassing Japan as the world's second largest economy.

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His remarks coincided with a British newspaper report, which pointed out that the nation would top the United States in the next nine years if Beijing manages to retain its current high growth rate.

Yi's comment has led to a flurry of media reports at home and abroad although some in the media have called into question China's gross domestic product (GDP) number. They have urged for caution, asking people not to take the development seriously.

At the same time, there are also others who believe that it is just a matter of time before the nation becomes the numero uno economy, chiefly on the back of its blistering rate of growth over the past three decades.

In fact, it is unimportant at the moment whether China has become the world's second largest economy or if it will surpass the US in terms of economic output within the next nine years.

Considering its double-digit yearly rate of growth over the past three decades and its prevailing currency exchange rate, China's economic heft is an indisputable fact. We should not excessively brood over the accuracy of the country's GDP data.

Despite its enormous economic aggregate, China's per capita GDP still lags that of the US and European counterparts.

Its $3,800 per capita GDP accounts for less than one-tenth that of Japan and just one-sixth of France's.

Besides its low per capita economic output, which is less than that of other mid-level developing countries, China's economic growth quality also cannot be compared to that of the US or other developed nations.

Since 2003, China's fast economic expansion has been largely based on exports and a booming real estate industry. Mushrooming exports in the past decades have not only helped integrate the country into the international market, but have also beefed up its economic quality.

However, the unbridled development of the country's real estate market over the past years - which is mainly based on extensive exploitation of limited land resources, excessive investment, speculation and rocketing housing prices - has led to bubbles in the sector and introduced serious uncertainty into whether the nation can show sustainable, stable and healthy growth.

The housing market-dependent GDP growth model will negatively affect the country's economic progress unless substantial changes are made to this approach.

Fortunately, the latest round of regulatory measures adopted by the State Council, which are aimed at turning the real estate industry from investment-dominated to consumption-oriented, will enhance the country's economic quality and reduce potential financial risks.

The uneven nature of economic development across different regions in the country has also added uncertainty to its economic quality.

China's remarkable economic achievements ever since the reform and opening-up policy have not fundamentally changed the prevalent dual economic structure between urban and rural areas.

On the contrary, the economic divide between urban and rural areas has widened and the proportion of the incomes of farmers and the rural economy in the wider national economy has been on the decline.

If such an unreasonable dual economic structure is not changed fundamentally, it will be difficult for rural residents to get an equal share of the prosperity brought on by the nation's fast economic growth.

Imbalanced economic development between the booming eastern coastal areas and inland regions has impeded the country's economic prospects.

China's uneven economic development is also reflected in the existing disparity in income distribution between different groups. Due to its ongoing transition from the earlier planned economy to a market economy, the role of the government and its intervention in economic activity is still widespread.

This has added to income disparity, with people having closer links to administrative power gaining more wealth and people on the opposite side gaining less. This trend will certainly hamper the nation's efforts at sustainable and stable growth.

A string of uncertain economic factors needs to be eliminated, and we should neither overestimate our country's economic status in the world nor purely use the GDP index to measure the country's economic weight.

From the perspective of per capita GDP and economic quality, China's economy is still at the mid-level of developing countries, and great effort is still needed to build up its economic strength.

What the Chinese people currently need most is to unceasingly reflect on existing problems to achieve better progress on the long-cherished road to national development.

The author is a researcher with the Institute of Finance and Banking under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.