By Wan Zhihong (China Daily)
Updated: 2007-12-21 09:34

China's crude oil production may rise 1.5 percent this year, according to the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association.

Oil output may climb to 186 million tons in 2007, and increase to 189 million tons next year, said Meng Quansheng, the association's vice-president.

China's dependency on imported oil will be about 47 percent in 2008, he said.

International oil prices will range between $80 and $90 a barrel next year, the association said.

Zhao Wenzhi, director of the Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, affiliated with the China National Petroleum Corporation, told China Daily earlier that the country will try its utmost to keep its annual oil imports below 60 percent of its total oil consumption by 2020.

"Currently China's oil production is rising to its peak season, which may last 30 years," he said.

Zhao predicted that China's oil output might reach 200 million tons by 2020. And the production volume will remain unchanged for a long period.

Demand for oil is estimated to hit 450 to 600 million tons in China by 2020.

"We will try to produce 40 percent of the oil we need by then," he said.

Meeting the domestic production target of 2020 requires more local exploration and production, obtaining oil from overseas assets, oil trading and raising energy saving, he said.

As a clean-energy option to supplement oil, natural gas will play a more important role in meeting the country's energy demand.

China's natural gas output may rise 14 percent to 58.55 billion cubic meters this year and increase to 76 billion cubic meters in 2008.

China plans to boost its natural gas production by 50 percent by 2010 to meet increasing demand.

The nation's gas production will be 90 billion cubic meters in 2010. Natural gas will then account for 5.3 percent of the nation's total energy consumption, according to industry insiders.

China's natural gas demand is projected to reach 140 billion cubic meters in 2010.