Nation's GDP target heralds steady growth

China's aim for a GDP growth rate of at least 4.5 to 5 percent in 2026 balances the need to maintain solid expansion with a continued shift toward higher-quality development, experts said.

On Thursday, Premier Li Qiang delivered the Government Work Report at the opening of the fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress, China's top legislature, in Beijing. The report reflects on China's recent past and outlines plans for 2026, including the GDP growth target.

Radhika Desai, a professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba in Canada, said the target is reasonable both quantitatively and qualitatively, adding that the figure of 4.5 to 5 percent is consistent with the goal of doubling China's 2020 per capita GDP by 2035 to reach the level of a moderately developed country. Given the current geopolitical volatility abroad and challenges at home, the target could even be considered ambitious.

Qualitatively, Desai said the target demonstrates China's sustained commitment to growth characterized by high quality, sustainability and efficiency, adding that the Government Work Report has renewed policy support for boosting domestic consumption, accelerating green transition and developing new quality productive forces, rather than simply chasing economic expansion.

"My dominant feeling from looking at these documents is that Chinese planners are very serious people. They understand very well what they are doing. They're constantly improving the planning process. They are constantly asking, 'What is the next challenge? How are we best to deal with it?' And all of this is judged in light of the ultimate goal, which is always to deliver and improve the living standards of the Chinese people," she said.

Marc Ostwald, chief economist and global strategist at ADM Investor Services International — a full-service brokerage company based in London — said the 2026 GDP target also signals China's realistic recognition of the headwinds it faces, adding that lowering the target does not imply that the economy is losing momentum.

Some have seized on the figure, using words like "low" or "weak" in their headlines. "The basic fact is, if you grow an economy at 10 percent when it is a $1 trillion economy, it is not actually as vast as growing at 5 percent when you are a $10 trillion-sized economy. So part of it is just statistical," Ostwald said.

Allan von Mehren, chief analyst and China economist at Danske Bank, Denmark's major bank, said that a more flexible growth target also leaves room for structural adjustments, risk prevention and reform.

To shift toward a high-quality growth paradigm, China is relying more on domestic consumption. According to the Government Work Report, the country will scale up its efforts to boost consumer spending by raising household property income and utilizing consumer goods trade-in programs.

The ongoing priority remains achieving greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology as China vows to become an innovation-driven economy.

Desai, the professor, said she sees the two approaches as "closely connected", noting that when policies are well-coordinated, higher productivity can also boost consumption capacity. Investment in emerging sectors such as science and technology and the green transition, for example, can create more jobs and drive income growth.

"You need to keep up a relatively high level of investment to expand your capacity to produce. In the West, they don't invest much because …they essentially get a lot of what they consume from countries that produce with low-paid workers. China does not intend to do that. China wishes to expand."

Xing Yi in London contributed to this story.

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