Energy security remains robust despite risks

China's energy security is expected to remain fundamentally unaffected by the United States-Israel attack on Iran that has cast a shadow on maritime operations through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital international waterway for oil and gas shipments, according to industry experts.

The nation's robust energy framework with diversification strategies, along with its massive strategic reserves and expanding land-based supply routes, has created "a shield of resilience" capable of weathering significant maritime disruptions, they said.

Their comments came as the attack, which entered its third day on Monday, renewed concerns over potential disruptions to crude shipments through the arterial maritime link.

Foreign Ministry spokeswo-man Mao Ning said at a daily news briefing that the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters are important international corridors for goods and energy trade, and maintaining security and stability in the area serves the common interests of the international community.

Lu Ruquan, president of the China National Petroleum Corp Economics and Technology Research Institute, said that while "a prolonged blockade would undoubtedly roil global markets, it is unlikely to disrupt significantly China's overall oil supply or import stability".

The confidence of the world's largest energy consumer is anchored in a multifaceted strategy that prioritizes emergency stockpiles and a wide array of import channels, he said.

"China's long-standing policy of global diversification allows it to lean on established partners across the Atlantic and in Africa. Suppliers such as Brazil, Nigeria and Angola — all of which have historically been cornerstone sources of Chinese imports — provide a geographical counterweight to Middle East dependency," Lu said.

According to data and analytics platform Kpler, this global energy artery registered the movement of more than 14 million barrels per day in 2024, making up a third of the world's total crude exports by sea.

The Strait of Hormuz is also vital for global liquefied natural gas exports, and according to Kpler, around 80 percent of LNG shipments passing through the waterway are bound for Asia. Major oil and gas producers in the Middle East use the waterway to transport energy from the region, and about three-quarters of the barrels go to China, India, Japan and South Korea, it added.

He Ning, an analyst at investment firm Kaiyuan Securities, said that in 2024, these four economies collectively received approximately 69 percent of all crude and condensate flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

As the world's leading crude importer, China remains at the heart of this demand, with a total import volume of 11 million barrels per day in 2024, he said, noting that about 4.78 million of these barrels, or 43.5 percent, came through the key waterway.

Lu, from the research institute, said that while the sheer scale of these figures is triggering market concerns, China's structural preparedness is capable of effectively mitigating any vulnerability to the volatile situation in the Middle East.

China's resilience is structural, he said, noting that non-Hormuz routes, including those from Saudi Arabia and Iraq through the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, could offer viable alternatives to ensure the physical flow of oil if maritime "choke points" are restricted.

Internal safeguards provide the next layer of protection. According to the research institute, China has actively built its strategic energy reserves, with the combined volume of strategic and commercial stocks providing at least 90 days of crude oil import coverage at the 2024 level. This buffer is designed specifically to absorb short-term supply shocks and prevent domestic price volatility during international contingencies, it said.

Another significant shift in China's energy security stance in recent years has been deepening cooperation with oil-rich economies, including Russia and Kazakhstan.

By utilizing the China-Russia and China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipelines, Beijing has secured a steady and growing supply of land-based oil that is entirely immune to maritime blockades or tensions in the Middle East, said Lu.

Domestically, China is proactively scaling up its oil and natural gas output by accelerating the exploration and extraction of unconventional energy sources, such as shale oil and gas.

The nation's energy self-sufficiency rate is on track to reach 84.6 percent in 2026, according to the institute. Domestic energy production is expected to reach 5.37 billion metric tons of standard coal equivalent this year, while total energy consumption is expected to hit 6.35 billion tons of standard coal, it said.

According to the National Energy Administration, the outlook follows a strong performance in 2025, when domestic output reached approximately 5.2 billion tons.

"All these measures collectively ensure that China's energy security remains robust even in the face of geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz," Lu said.

Contact the writers at
zhengxin@chinadaily.com.cn