Takaichi's election 'victory' calls for vigilance: China Daily editorial

The supermajority moment for Japan's right-wing forces might prove to be a troubling watershed for Japan and beyond.

According to NHK, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its ally, the Japan Innovation Party, have secured 352 seats in the 465-member House of Representatives — comfortably above the two-thirds threshold required to override the upper house. The LDP alone has won 316 seats, enough to dominate the chamber in its own right. In Japan's postwar constitutional architecture, that number matters. Article 59 allows the lower house to enact legislation rejected by the House of Councillors with a two-thirds vote. With that power now firmly in her hands, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's room for maneuver has expanded dramatically.

The LDP campaigned on tax cuts, expanded defense spending and a more confrontational posture toward neighboring countries. With a supermajority, it can more easily reinterpret — or ultimately amend — the pacifist constraints of Article 9 of the Constitution. The numbers are striking. Japan has already embarked on a plan to lift defense spending to 2 percent of GDP two years in advance, roughly doubling the level of a decade ago and implying annual military outlays of about 11 trillion yen ($75 billion). Takaichi has signaled that it is not enough, and she wants to go further and faster.

At the same time, she promises to suspend the 8 percent consumption tax on food and to pursue fiscal stimulus. Japan's gross public debt already exceeds 250 percent of GDP, the highest among developed economies. The yen has further weakened against the dollar amid expectations of looser fiscal policy. Investors are entitled to wonder how an expansionary budget and military build-up can coexist without straining market confidence or forcing the country's central bank into uncomfortable choices.

Takaichi's political instincts are also revealing. Shortly after her victory, she thanked the United States president for endorsing her campaign, which was seen as an open interference by the opposition parties, posting on X that "The potential of our Alliance is LIMITLESS". Her message was clear: Japan is willing to act as an accomplice of the US. Takaichi appears to have calculated that Japan can secure favor and leverage by presenting itself as "the US' most dependable partner" at a time when many major US allies are hedging against Washington's unpredictability.

Her remarks about a possible visit to the Yasukuni Shrine offer another clue to her political calculations. Speaking on Fuji Television after the election, she said she would seek the understanding of the US and neighboring countries before paying respects at the shrine, where World War II war criminals are enshrined as "national heroes".

The choreography is careful; the intent is unmistakable. This is not about reconciliation but about creating political space to revive a nationalist narrative of the past. The broader question is what this says about Japan's future policy orientation.

Takaichi's defenders argue that she has won a "democratic" mandate. But "democratic legitimacy" is not only about arithmetic. It is also about restraint, institutional balance and respect for the Constitution.

The irony is that the system created to anchor Japan's postwar pacifism now provides the legal pathway for its dilution. Whether Takaichi proves to be a stateswoman with a coherent long-term vision, or merely a shrewd ideologically driven opportunist adept at riding nationalist sentiment and exploiting parliamentary arithmetic, will shape not only Japan's future but also affect the stability of the region.

Japan's neighbors will watch closely. A Japan that accelerates remilitarization, undertakes constitutional revision and dismisses the sensitivity of historical issues will inevitably raise the anxieties of nations that are still licking the wounds left by past Japanese aggression. Even if Tokyo insists that its intentions are "defensive", perceptions matter in an already tense Asia-Pacific.

Looking back at history, Japan's wars of aggression were invariably driven by politicians manipulating public sentiment, ultimately plunging the nation and the entire region into the abyss of war. Today, Takaichi's policies and rhetoric are accelerating the reawakening of Japan's long-dormant, suppressed militaristic tendencies.

The election result is being hailed by Takaichi's supporters as heralding the arrival of an "Iron Lady" in Tokyo. But all peace-loving nations see something else: the consolidation of a supermajority that removes a major, if not the last, meaningful legislative obstacle to a radical rightward turn in Japanese politics.

Japanese political scientist Masao Maruyama rightly warned his nation after Japan's defeat in the war of aggression it launched that the war stemmed from a "system of irresponsibility", in which militarists imposed a fa?ade of "voluntary" obedience on the public. He argued that genuine peace could only be achieved if the people overcame this internal, passive acquiescence to militarism.

That admonition remains deeply resonant today.