Japan's ruling coalition to secure lower house majority in election

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party is projected to win between 274 and 328 seats on its own in Sunday's lower House election, according to an NHK exit poll released at 8 pm local time, indicating that Japan's ruling coalition is likely to secure a majority in the chamber.

Voting began at 7 am local time and ended at 8 pm, with results being released throughout the evening and the final tally expected in the early hours of Monday.

More than 1,200 candidates battled for 465 seats in the House of Representatives, the powerful lower chamber of parliament, in the nationwide voting that began on Sunday morning.

A total of 465 seats are at stake, with 233 required for a majority. Of these, 289 are filled through single-member districts, while the remaining 176 are allocated by proportional representation across 11 regional blocs.

Before the election, the ruling coalition held 232 seats in the lower house — 198 for the Liberal Democratic Party and 34 for the Japan Innovation Party. A gain of just one seat would give the bloc a majority, the minimum needed for the prime minister to remain in office at the special session of parliament to be convened after the election.

Although the term for lower house members is four years, Takaichi dissolved the chamber last month, only about 15 months after the previous election. Calling a poll in February, when heavy snowfall is common in parts of the country and many school entrance exams are scheduled, is unusual. The 16-day period between the dissolution of parliament and election day is also the shortest in the post-World War II era.

The decision to call the snap election has drawn criticism, as it is expected to delay parliamentary passage of the initial budget for fiscal 2026, which had originally been scheduled by the end of March, ahead of the April start of the fiscal year.

Takaichi has said the coalition's goal is to secure a simple majority. She also said last month that she would resign as prime minister if the coalition failed to win a majority.

For the ruling bloc, 233 seats would secure a simple majority needed to pass legislation. With 243 seats, it would control half of the members of all Diet standing committees and all committee chair posts. An "absolute stable majority" of 261 seats would give it control of all committees. A two-thirds majority of 310 seats would allow it to override bills rejected by the upper house, where it lacks a majority. Constitutional amendments require a two-thirds majority in both houses.

Even if the coalition secures a majority in the lower house, however, its minority status in the upper chamber will remain unchanged. As a result, new legislation will still require support from opposition parties. The LDP suffered defeats in both the 2024 lower house election and the July 2025 upper house election, leaving the Takaichi cabinet, formed in October, as a minority government in both chambers.

Sunday's vote is the first general election for the Centrist Reform Alliance, a newly formed opposition bloc created by the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito, a former coalition partner of the LDP. According to an NHK exit poll, the alliance is projected to win between 37 and 91 seats, a sharp drop from its pre-election total of 167 seats.