Report finds declining Chinese tourists in Japan

Japan usually sees a surge of Chinese visitors during the Spring Festival period. This year, however, the situation is markedly different.

Following erroneous remarks on Taiwan made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Nov 7, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, from Feb 15 to Feb 23, is expected to drop significantly. Industry insiders warn that the decline could persist, prompting some department stores to seek customers from other countries and regions to offset lost revenue.

A report released on Jan 21 by the Japan National Tourism Organization showed that visitors from the Chinese mainland fell sharply in December, down 45.3 percent year-on-year to 330,400. The figures suggest a clear downturn after Takaichi's remarks. In November, arrivals totaled 562,600, down from 715,700 in October.

Analysts say that the continued tension in China-Japan relations has affected sectors ranging from retail to hospitality and dining, and they have called for improved ties to encourage the return of Chinese tourists.

On Jan 26, China's Foreign Ministry issued a warning reminding Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan during the Spring Festival holiday. The same day, Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines announced free refunds or ticket changes for Japan-bound flights purchased before noon on Jan 26 for travel between March 29 and Oct 24. Similar policies had previously been introduced, covering travel through March 28.

Yoshiharu Nishisaka, executive director of the Japan Department Stores Association said that because the government in Beijing has reminded Chinese tourists to avoid traveling to Japan, "both sales and visitor numbers from China have fallen by about 40 percent".

He added that "the negative impact is so large that gains in other regions cannot fully offset it".

Department stores, which rely heavily on high-spending tourists, are expected to be hit harder than sectors such as supermarkets or apparel retailers. The Japan Research Institute estimates that if bilateral relations continue to deteriorate, spending by Chinese tourists in Japan could fall by 1.2 trillion yen ($7.64 billion) over the next year.

Largest share

According to the Japan Tourism Agency, total spending by overseas visitors reached 8.12 trillion yen in 2024, with Chinese tourists accounting for the largest share at 21 percent. They are known for purchasing cosmetics, watches and jewelry, making them especially important customers for department stores.

Nikkei Asia compiled operating profit forecasts for 65 listed retailers for the December-to-February period, showing department stores are expected to see profits fall by 24 percent. Drugstores are projected to grow by 4 percent, while supermarkets and convenience stores may decline by 4 percent.

Keiichi Ono, president of J. Front Retailing, which owns the Daimaru Matsuzakaya department store chain, said the impact of the travel warning could last for some time. The company expects operating profit during the period to fall 53 percent year-on-year, while Matsuya forecasts an 81 percent drop.

Japan's largest travel agency, JTB, expects inbound arrivals in 2026 to decline by 3 percent due to uncertain prospects for visitors from the Chinese mainland.

If the trend continues, the impacts could extend beyond short-term tourism revenue. Some analysts warn that fewer visitors will reduce opportunities for direct exposure to Japanese culture, potentially weakening the global influence of Japanese brands.

Kenta Maruyama, deputy chief researcher at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting, told Reuters that travel experiences in Japan often stimulate demand for Japanese restaurants and products among Chinese tourists after they return home. A decline in visitors could shrink this "gateway" effect.

Japanese restaurant chains such as Sushiro and Saizeriya have gained a foothold in China partly because Chinese consumers became familiar with Japanese cuisine and service during trips to Japan. Inbound tourism not only generates immediate spending but also long-term benefits, such as trust and goodwill toward Japanese brands.

"If people-to-people exchanges continue to decrease, it could quietly reduce the penetration of Japanese brands and limit corporate growth," Maruyama said.

Hiroyuki Takahashi, chairman of the Japan Association of Travel Agents, said he hopes relations between the two countries will improve soon so that bilateral exchanges can recover.

houjunjie@chinadaily.com.cn