Sino-US trade shift seen as a gradual rebalancing

Amid mounting challenges such as tariff barriers, technology restrictions and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, China-US trade is undergoing a gradual adjustment, with market watchers and business leaders saying that bilateral trade flows are showing signs of a slow recalibration and becoming more structurally complex, rather than moving toward full-scale decoupling.

They noted that the growth of China's exports to the United States has moderated, with some manufacturing orders shifting to alternative markets as global supply chains are reconfigured. Meanwhile, China still holds substantial potential to expand imports of US energy and agricultural products, alongside deepening two-way engagement in services trade and premium consumption-related sectors.

These trends point to a gradual rebalancing of China-US trade away from a model dominated by China's surplus in manufactured goods toward a more diversified pattern, supported by broader product categories and increasingly two-way demand, said Yan Xuetong, a professor at Tsinghua University's Institute of International Relations.

Amid severe disruptions to the global economic and trade order last year, China-US trade fell 18.2 percent year-on-year to 4.01 trillion yuan ($578 billion) in 2025, accounting for 8.8 percent of China's total trade by value, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. The decline is seen as reflecting structural adjustment pressures rather than a collapse in bilateral trade.

John Quelch, executive vice-chancellor and an economics professor at Duke Kunshan University, said that beyond agriculture, energy has emerged as another potential area for cooperation, reflecting the US' ambition to expand energy exports and China's long-term demand for diversified and stable energy supplies.

"Technology, particularly semiconductors, is expected to remain one of the most complex and contentious aspects of the bilateral economic relationship," Quelch said. "Export controls and market access for advanced chips are likely to be negotiated on a generation-by-generation basis."

Sun Lipeng, deputy director of the Institute of American Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said that overall, the ongoing recalibration reflects both market-driven adjustments and policy constraints, rather than a wholesale decoupling.

"What we are seeing is a gradual reshaping of trade patterns, unfolding over a longer cycle and with greater structural complexity," he added.

Official data also point to the continued scale and resilience of bilateral trade. Lyu Daliang, director of the General Administration of Customs' department of statistics and analysis, said that based on bilateral goods trade statistics in 2025, China remained the US' third-largest export destination and third-largest source of imports, while the US was China's largest goods export destination and its third-largest source of imports.

At a news conference in Beijing last week, Wang Zhihua, director of the foreign trade department at the Ministry of Commerce, responded to a media inquiry regarding remarks by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer at the recent World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on the possibility of another round of bilateral trade talks.

Wang said China stands ready to work with the US through the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism to manage differences, deepen cooperation and promote the stable and sustainable development of bilateral trade ties.

At the company level, businesses are adjusting strategies in response to the shifting trade environment.

One such company is Milliken & Co, a US manufacturer of specialty chemicals and performance materials. The South Carolina-based company will strengthen its technical, supply chain and customer support capabilities in China, while advancing its "localization — China serving Asia" framework to enhance operational agility and service efficiency.

"China is not only one of the world's largest coatings markets, but also one of the most dynamic hubs for green technology innovation," said Simon Oram, vice-president of Milliken's coating additives business.

zhongnan@chinadaily.com.cn