Energy independence set to improve

China's energy self-sufficiency rate is on track to reach 84.6 percent this year, as the country intensifies efforts to insulate its economy from global supply volatility, according to a report released by a think tank recently.

The outlook follows a strong performance in 2025, where domestic output reached approximately 5.2 billion metric tons, resulting in a self-sufficiency rate of 84.4 percent, the report by China National Petroleum Corp Economics and Technology Research Institute showed.

Domestic energy production is expected to reach 5.37 billion tons of standard coal equivalent in 2026, while total energy consumption is expected to hit 6.35 billion tons of standard coal in 2026, it said.

Wu Mouyuan, vice-president of the institute, said China has maintained a steady upward trajectory in energy independence over the last decade.

"China's energy security capacity is steadily consolidating," Wu said, emphasizing that the focus remains on balancing robust domestic supply with high-quality economic development.

Domestic energy output has grown at an average annual rate of 4.7 percent over the past 10 years. The rate has increased by an average of 0.6 percentage point annually, he said.

According to the National Energy Administration, the year 2025 marked the most successful period for energy security and supply since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25).

Domestic crude oil and natural gas production hit all-time highs, up 1.5 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively, while coal production remained stable with a 1.2 percent year-on-year increase, according to Xing Yiteng, deputy director-general of the department of development and planning of the National Energy Administration.

According to the China National Petroleum Corp Economics and Technology Research Institute, China's oil and gas production climbed to a record high in 2025, bolstered by aggressive exploration in unconventional reserves and a surge in offshore output.

Total oil and gas output reached 420 million tons of oil equivalent last year, more than 30 percent higher compared to 2018 levels, with crude oil output reaching 216 million tons and natural gas rising to 263.8 billion cubic meters, it said.

Wu attributed this growth to "advancements in exploration and development theories" and "upgrades in high-end equipment iteration", which have allowed China to tap into previously difficult-to-reach reserves.

A key driver behind the production spike is the rapid development of unconventional resources, which have become the primary engine for China's output growth, he said.

Unconventional gas currently accounts for approximately 46 percent of China's total gas output, with shale gas production exceeding 27 billion cubic meters. Shale oil output reached 7.7 million tons, a staggering eight-fold increase since 2018, he said.

Offshore exploration has emerged as another critical "growth pole", said Wu.

In 2025, offshore crude oil production surpassed 68 million tons, continuing a multiyear trend of offshore blocks providing a significant share of the country's incremental production.

Looking ahead in 2026, the institute projects a period of stabilization for crude oil, with production expected to remain steady at the 200 million tons mark, while natural gas is forecast to maintain a rapid growth trajectory as Beijing continues its push for a lower-carbon energy mix.

On the supply side, Chinese energy enterprises have also made significant strides in overseas exploration and production. Over the past five years, overseas equity production has grown by an average of 4 million tons annually, said the institute.

In 2025, total overseas equity production reached 196 million tons, a 2.68 percent increase, including 154 million tons of crude oil and 520 billion cubic meters of natural gas.

Major incremental gains were sourced from strategic projects in Guyana, Iraq and Kazakhstan, reflecting the accelerated pace of international project development and China's commitment to diversifying its global energy assets, it said.