Eye on Chinese arrivals

Safety concerns

Beyond the infrastructure gaps and rising prices, a more somber shadow hangs over the industry: security.

"While diving remains a powerful draw, travelers crave certainty and safety above all else. For many, the decision to visit is based on a feeling of being welcomed, not just the beauty of the scenery," Peng said.

The cooling of bilateral relations, fueled by the Philippines' actions in the South China Sea, alongside reports of targeted incidents, has created a palpable climate of unease. Experts said this has become a key reason for hesitation among many potential travelers.

Ge Hongliang, vice-dean of the ASEAN College at Guangxi Minzu University, said tourists are "voting with their feet". He said in an analysis that the current administration's aggressive rhetoric toward Beijing has made it difficult for Chinese citizens to feel genuinely welcome, instead breeding unease.

Wu said the country is not as perilous as some rumors suggest, but he admits it is far from free of "darker realities". For many travelers, those details are enough to shape the entire experience.

Zhao said the security warnings are not groundless. However, he said the potential for a normal vacation should not be entirely sacrificed due to the Philippines' actions.

Rebuilding trust

Peng said if the Philippines wants to win back the Chinese market, the fundamental strategy must be to maintain stable relations. While better service might mask infrastructure flaws, the "trust deficit" at the geopolitical level cannot be fixed through marketing alone, he said.

Chen Xiangmiao, a research fellow at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, told the media that following the launch of the South China Sea's Hainan Free Trade Port, the Philippines sees strong potential for cooperation with China, with the Marcos administration recognizing the Chinese market as vital due to complementary trade ties between the two countries.

It can be inferred from the latest US National Security Strategy report that the declining regional attention from the US may also be a partial reason for the Philippines' recalibration of its China policy, Chen said.

Chen also said that while maintaining its stance on the South China Sea, the Philippines seeks to tap China's lucrative outbound tourism market — a contradictory desire to have both.

Ji Lingpeng, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in the Philippines, said in a recent comment on Philippine legislators' push to designate a Chinese diplomat "persona non grata" that while other ASEAN member states are actively exploring cooperation and shared development opportunities with China, the Philippines has lost significant development prospects and cooperation chances due to its persistent hype of maritime disputes.

He said that direct flights between China and the Philippines have plummeted from over 300 weekly pre-pandemic to just 84, and personnel exchanges have dropped sharply from over 3 million to around 300,000 annually.

Chinese investment in the Philippines now lags far behind that in other ASEAN countries, barely exceeding levels in Brunei. "Is this what the Philippine side hopes to see?" he said.

Ge said the Philippines' introduction of a visa-free policy is a positive signal. Yet, whether this signifies that the country will adopt a pragmatic approach toward China remains contingent on its future actions.

Cao Yuqian and agencies contributed to this story.