Africa looks to diversify markets amid uncertainty

As world leaders gather in Davos against the backdrop of deepening geopolitical fractures, Africa finds itself caught between tightening Western gates and widening Eastern openings.

Washington's turn toward unilateralism, seen in stricter visa regimes, and cuts to overseas aid, is squeezing African economies and mobility, even as China moves in the opposite direction, offering zero-tariff access to 53 African countries.

Stephen Nduvi, a Kenyan expert and consultant on public policy, said that reduced US assistance and tighter visa regimes signal the narrowing of traditional Western gateways that have long underpinned Africa's global engagement. At the same time, China's zero-tariff access is opening alternative trade corridors, reshaping the continent's external economic options.

Nduvi said preferential market access must be used to drive industrial upgrading, export diversification, and regional value chains.

He said China's trade policies should be leveraged to accelerate manufacturing, agro-processing, and technology-intensive exports while deepening the operationalization of the African Continental Free Trade Area as the backbone of competitiveness and scale.

The immediate impacts of US policy shifts are already being felt. Nduvi said that declining US assistance is straining health systems, humanitarian programs, governance reforms, and civil society initiatives that remain reliant on external financing.

Additionally, tighter visa policies are restricting business mobility, academic exchanges, research collaboration, and diaspora engagement.

"These restrictions function as nontariff barriers, quietly undermining innovation, entrepreneurship, and access to global knowledge networks," he said.

Over the medium to long term, Nduvi warned that aid contraction exposes deeper structural vulnerabilities in domestic revenue systems and economic diversification.

Charles Onunaiju, director of the Centre for China Studies in Nigeria, views Washington's retreat less as a sudden shock and more as the culmination of a long-running trend.

He said Africa should have anticipated a more inward-looking US, pointing to years of limited market access under initiatives such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which was frequently constrained by political and ideological conditions.

Onunaiju, however, noted that African countries have already started diversifying their international engagement, particularly toward the Asia-Pacific region, which currently accounts for almost half of the global trade.

He pointed to the growing African ties with China, Southeast Asia, and emerging groupings such as BRICS, alongside efforts to boost intra-African trade, as evidence that Africa is building buffers against external shocks.

Onunaiju said China's zero-tariff policy could play a transformative role. In addition to expanding export earnings, he said the policy offers a pathway for structurally transforming the African economies, particularly diversification of economies.

Access to the Chinese market, Onunaiju said, could incentivize local processing, manufacturing, and job creation, helping African countries move up value chains rather than exporting raw materials.

The experts noted that external opportunities will only deliver lasting gains if matched by internal reforms.

Nduvi said reducing dependence on foreign aid requires a shift from consumption-led growth to production-driven development. He said strengthening domestic resource mobilization through tax base expansion, digital systems, and reduced leakages is critical, as it targets industrial policy aligned with infrastructure, finance, and skills development.

Onunaiju said resilience in an increasingly volatile world will depend on state capacity and social consensus, adding that strong institutions, inclusive governance, and regional connectivity are essential for absorbing geopolitical shocks.

Nduvi said Africa must project confidence, coherence, and strategic clarity at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting 2026 in Davos. He said the continent's future partnerships will be defined less by aid and more by reciprocity, value addition, technology transfer, and respect for sovereignty.

edithmutethya@chinadaily.com.cn