When doctrine turns into detonation of rules

Within a month of the release of the 2025 National Security Strategy — which introduced the "Trump corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine aimed at strengthening control over the Western Hemisphere — the coercive nature of the policy was revealed when the United States struck Venezuela on Jan 3 and abducted President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.

There were three important motives behind the US administration's use of military force against Venezuela: "control", "deterrence" and "domestic politics".

The primary motive was to enforce Trump's version of the "befriend distant states and attack neighboring states" policy. Positioned as the foremost among the five "core, vital national interests" in the National Security Strategy, the Trump corollary involves a significant reduction in international commitments and resource allocations outside the Western Hemisphere, a sharper focus on domestic issues, enhancement of border defenses and consolidation of exclusive control over the Western Hemisphere.

The second objective of the "decapitation strike" in Venezuela was to deter major powers outside the region. Compared with earlier versions, the 2025 National Security Strategy significantly tones down its rhetoric on China and focuses on economic competition. This change stems from the realization in Washington that China's industrial output now exceeds that of the entire G7. By easing direct confrontation, Washington is aiming for a strategic window to push for reindustrialization and increase its competitiveness against China.

The strike in Venezuela was intended to demonstrate the US' military power, restore an image damaged by the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and warn external powers against disrupting the country's reindustrialization trajectory.

Domestic politics was the third, and perhaps most urgent, reason. Facing the prospect of midterm elections in November, the Trump administration needed a swift and decisive military victory to bolster its image and advance its transformative domestic agenda. Political pressure at home intensified the urgency.

With California passing a redistricting bill favoring the opposition party and growing economic pressures on households, the Trump administration wanted to score "achievements" in its foreign policy.

The bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities effectively propelled the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill and was seen by the administration as a precedent worth replicating.

Such tactics are not new. Former US president Ronald Reagan introduced sweeping reforms to lift US society out of disillusionment following the Vietnam War and former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher used military force in the Falkland Islands to earn overwhelming political authority.

Since Trump's return to the White House, Washington has adopted a policy of "strategic retrenchment". This does not mean retreating from all regions, but a broad reduction in the US' international commitments while focusing on rebuilding the domestic real economy, strengthening social order and curbing illegal immigration.

A second priority is consolidating US dominance in the Western Hemisphere, which places Venezuela squarely within this scope. Since Hugo Chavez won the presidential election in 1998, Venezuela has pursued policies that are openly hostile to the US, fueling a strong motivation to remove this longstanding thorn.

For the Trump administration, control over the military is critical. Since 2016, opposition forces have broken the taboo against openly discussing a military coup in the US. To neutralize this threat and tighten its grip on the US military, the administration needs a bigger military budget and a sweeping overhaul of the armed forces. External military successes help justify these efforts.

Immigration politics is another issue. The Republicans have long accused Democrats of lax border control, accusing them of "importing" supporters. Since the beginning of Trump's second term, the administration has cracked down on illegal immigration, framing it as a key strategy to secure victory in the following elections. Sustaining this approach needs cooperation from Latin American countries. Striking Venezuela intimidates the region into aligning with US efforts to expel illegal migrants.

Economic considerations have also played a part. The frequent references to Venezuela's oil reserves by senior officials are primarily intended to galvanize support from oil companies, while indirectly influencing inflation expectations. Venezuela's daily oil output is far below that of the US and substantial investment and time are required to exploit those reserves. But controlling those oil reserves is viewed as a way to bolster market confidence.

Just as the indiscriminate tariff war launched in April 2025 trampled World Trade Organization principles and hastened the unraveling of the postwar multilateral trading system, the US strike on Venezuela marks an acceleration toward the breakdown of the international order in the security realm.

A world that once valued "decency" is rapidly receding, giving way to an era of intensified power rivalry. Confronted with this profound transformation, we must strengthen our capabilities, objectively analyze the developments and make the right decisions.

The author is a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, Ministry of Commerce.

The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.

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