Stabilizing engine for the world

China's trajectory offers opportunities for the Global South, which is confronting slowing global growth, capital constraints and shifting geopolitical dynamics

China's growth playbook offers a revealing window into how the world's second-largest economy is positioning itself to stabilize growth, deepen structural reform and expand global cooperation at a moment of pronounced uncertainty in the international system. As slowing global growth, intensifying geopolitical tensions and accelerating economic fragmentation redefine the contours of world economy, China's Central Economic Work Conference, held on Dec 10 and 11, stands out as a critical inflection point with implications extending well beyond national borders.

According to the latest United Nations Conference on Trade and Development projections in December, global economic growth is projected to decelerate to approximately 2.6 percent through 2026 — well below historical averages and inadequate to support sustained development in many low and middle-income countries. Within this constrained global environment, the policy directions articulated at the Central Economic Work Conference — centered on stabilizing growth, advancing reform and reinforcing openness — carry particular significance for the Global South, especially African economies that are navigating the increasingly volatile international landscape shaped by rising protectionism, shifting power alignments, and mounting external shocks.

The conference outlined eight priority tasks for 2026, emphasizing the expansion of a robust domestic market, innovation-driven growth, high-quality development and a deeper commitment to opening-up. These priorities align closely with the Recommendations of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) for National Economic and Social Development, which will guide China's development trajectory over the next five years. For global markets and developing economies alike, these signals offer valuable insight into how the world's second-largest economy — accounting for roughly 18 percent of global GDP — intends to manage internal pressures while sustaining its role as a central engine of global growth.

Chinese authorities have reiterated their commitment to cultivating "new growth drivers" by scaling investment in strategic sectors, including artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, clean energy, quantum technologies and digital infrastructure. These sectors already play a decisive role in China's economic expansion, and China remains the world's largest investor in renewable energy, committing over $625 billion by the end of 2024 to green technologies. This sustained push toward technological upgrading is designed not only to enhance productivity domestically but also to reposition China more competitively within global value chains.

China's innovation agenda carries significant implications for the Global South, particularly African economies seeking to industrialize and diversify. Opportunities for technology transfer, joint ventures, skills development and industrial collaboration with Chinese companies can support African countries' ambitions to move beyond primary commodity dependence. As governments across the continent pursue digital transformation and green industrialization — often constrained by limited access to capital and technology — China's scale, experience and manufacturing depth offer concrete pathways for cooperation that can accelerate development while strengthening South-South economic ties.

Alongside innovation, a stronger Chinese consumer market can generate important spillover effects beyond China's borders. China is already Africa's largest bilateral trading partner, with total trade exceeding $295.6 billion in 2024 — a record high marking China's 16th consecutive year as Africa's top trading partner. As China's middle-income population, now estimated at more than 400 million people, continues to expand, demand for higher-value food products, consumer goods and services is expected to rise. This shift creates new opportunities for African exporters to diversify their offerings and integrate more deeply into China-centered supply chains, particularly in agribusiness, light manufacturing and services.

Equally important is China's reaffirmed commitment to opening-up and international economic cooperation. Despite escalating geopolitical tensions and the persistence of so-called reciprocal tariff measures by the United States, China has reiterated its willingness to work with all partners to strengthen multilateral trade frameworks and promote inclusive globalization.

Investment data further support this narrative of sustained engagement. A recent report by FDI Intelligence, a publication of The Financial Times, identified China as the fastest-growing source of foreign direct investment in 2026, according to surveyed global experts. Even as global FDI declined by nearly 11 percent in 2024, China's investment activity, particularly in emerging markets, has remained resilient.

For African economies seeking capital, technology and market access, this outward investment momentum offers strategic leverage. Chinese-backed infrastructure projects, special economic zones, industrial parks and manufacturing hubs — often aligned with the Belt and Road Initiative — have already helped reduce logistics costs, improve connectivity and generate employment across the continent. As African countries advance implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, partnerships with China can help translate continental integration into concrete industrial and trade outcomes.

These economic strategies are unfolding against the backdrop of intensifying geopolitical competition. US tariff measures and supply chain decoupling moves have aimed to constrain China's export-led growth, particularly in advanced manufacturing and technology sectors. Yet China's diversification toward markets in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East has mitigated some of these pressures. For the Global South, this diversification contributes to a more pluralistic trade environment. African economies — many of which remain vulnerable to demand shocks in developed markets — benefit from alternative sources of demand for energy, minerals, agricultural products and manufactured goods. Enhanced South-South trade can also strengthen resilience against volatility stemming from geopolitical disputes among major powers.

By anchoring growth in domestic demand, technological innovation, fiscal prudence and international cooperation, China is positioning itself to navigate global uncertainty while sustaining modernization at home. For the Global South — particularly African countries confronting slowing global growth, capital constraints and shifting geopolitical dynamics — China's trajectory offers both opportunity and responsibility.

Deeper engagement with China can support diversification, industrial upgrading, and resilience, but it must be pursued strategically, with close attention to local capacity building, equitable value creation and environmental sustainability. In a fragmented global economy, China's evolving role as a stabilizing growth engine and development partner may prove pivotal. If effectively aligned with the aspirations of developing economies, China's policy direction could help shape a more interconnected, balanced, and inclusive global growth path — one in which the Global South plays a more prominent and empowered role.

The author is an associate professor and the executive director of the Center for Nigerian Studies at the Institute of African Studies at Zhejiang Normal University. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.