New Chinese study reveals Antarctic amplification mechanism

BEIJING -- A new study has clearly confirmed that Antarctic amplification will take place in the future and also further revealed its physical mechanism.

The study, led by researchers of the Institute of Global Change and Polar Meteorology under the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), was recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Anthropogenic warming is projected to intensify disproportionately in polar regions relative to the global average — a phenomenon referred to as polar amplification. While this effect has been established in the Arctic, the presence and drivers of its counterpart, Antarctic amplification, had previously remained uncertain and open to debate.

Based on observations from more than 200 stations in Antarctica and via China's first-generation of global atmospheric and land surface reanalysis products, the research team was for the first time able to detect a continent-wide warming signal across Antarctica.

The study demonstrates a robust warming signal over the Antarctic continent under the 2 degrees Celsius warming scenario of the Paris Agreement, with its overall warming magnitude being 1.4 times more than the average for the Southern Hemisphere.

Ding Minghu, head of the Institute of Global Change and Polar Research under the CAMS, stated that due to the isolating effect of the roaring westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere, human activities exert their influence primarily by transferring heat to Antarctica through the warming of the sea surface. This is the reason why Antarctic warming lags behind that found in other parts of the world.

Additionally, because of the continuous rise in sea surface temperatures, Antarctic amplification will also gradually emerge in the future and its warming rate will accelerate, Ding noted.

This study reveals a substantial, yet previously underappreciated, future human impact on the Antarctic climate.