China targets world-class Earth system forecasting network by 2035

China has unveiled a decade-long strategy to enhance its weather prediction capabilities, aiming to build a globally advanced Earth system forecasting network by 2035.

The Earth System Forecasting Development Strategy (2025-2035), recently released by the China Meteorological Administration, outlines a roadmap to improve early warnings for extreme weather and better protect public safety by analyzing complex interactions among the atmosphere, oceans and land.

Bi Baogui, deputy head of the administration, said the strategy proposes a technical approach that combines the precision of traditional numerical prediction — using supercomputers to simulate physical laws across Earth's systems — with the speed of artificial intelligence.

"We will continue to deepen numerical prediction based on physical laws. On the other hand, we will fully leverage the advantages of AI to mine forecasting patterns from massive meteorological datasets," Bi said.

The integration aims to create a forecasting system that is both scientifically rigorous and highly efficient, he added.

Gong Jiandong, head of the administration's Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center, said China's core forecasting capabilities are expected to reach a world-class level by 2035.

Key benchmarks include achieving kilometer-level Earth system modeling globally and hundred-meter-level modeling locally, enabling seamless forecasting products ranging from minute-by-minute updates to decade-long climate outlooks, according to the strategy.

"These technologies and forecasting products will support disaster prevention and mitigation in countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative," Gong said.

The initiative is also designed to support daily life and national development through a major leap in the accuracy and reliability of weather forecasts, said Liang Feng, head of the administration's Department of Forecasting and Prediction.

"More accurate weather forecasts will greatly improve convenience and safety in people's lives," Liang said.

By using high-resolution models and AI, the administration aims to sharpen predictions for typhoons, thunderstorms, hail and cold waves. Precise forecasting can provide a scientific basis for evacuations and resource allocation before disasters strike, while offering longer lead times for warnings of flash floods and landslides, Liang said.

In addition, deeper research into the mechanisms of extreme weather will support China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals by helping optimize emission reduction pathways.

The Earth system forecasting network is also expected to guide climate risk–adaptive urban planning, helping cities build resilience against waterlogging and heat waves, Liang said.