Global institutions upbeat about China's economic resilience, growth potential

BEIJING — As the year 2025 approaches its end, an increasing number of international organizations and financial institutions have successively upgraded their forecasts regarding China's economy.

While acknowledging external uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, these institutions generally believe that China's solid economic fundamentals, sufficient policy tools and structural upgrading will sustain its growth momentum.

Financial heavyweight Goldman Sachs released a research report in late November, in which it upgraded its prediction for China's 2025 real GDP growth from 4.9 percent to 5 percent, with even bigger increases forecast for the next two years.

China's real export growth is expected to increase by 5 percent to 6 percent annually over the next few years, up from a previous forecast of just 2 percent to 3 percent, as Chinese goods gain global market share, Goldman Sachs researchers wrote in their report.

At a key Party plenum in October, the Communist Party of China leadership adopted its recommendations for the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30). "It calls for upgrades to traditional industries such as metals, chemicals and textiles, and for growth in emerging industries like new energy," said the report, adding that these goals will get broad-based support from all levels of governments, from logistics to financing, helping exports to grow.

While keeping its global economic growth forecast stable at 3.2 percent, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development recently also revised China's GDP forecast for 2025 from 4.9 percent to 5 percent. This adjustment highlights the OECD's recognition of China as a key stabilizer for global growth.

The OECD noted that China's fiscal policy has been expansionary with the introduction of a number of measures to support incomes and boost consumption, in addition to the trade-in program for cars and household appliances.

Multiple foreign institutions have also voiced confidence in China's policy toolkit. Xiong Yi, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank, believes China's intensification of its fiscal policy, including a new policy-based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan ($70.72 billion), is likely to provide strong support for domestic demand in both the fourth quarter and early 2026.

Morgan Stanley, in its latest research report, emphasized that China's economy will grow moderately in 2026, supported by targeted policy easing, gradual economic rebalancing and an anti-involution campaign.

Domestically, leading financial institutions also echo this optimistic outlook. Zhao Gege, chief macro analyst at Everbright Securities, emphasized China's unique advantages. "The synergy between the super-large-scale market and a strong industrial system provides ample room for growth, with a well-stocked macro policy toolbox."

Zhang Wenlang, chief macroeconomist at China International Capital Corp, noted that China's foreign trade structure is improving, with technological progress reducing trade costs and stabilizing export enterprises' profit margins.

Zhou Junzhi, chief macro analyst at China Securities Co Ltd, said new consumption segments are emerging as new growth engines, with IP trend toys and domestic brands gaining greater market recognition and accelerating their global expansion.

Moreover, many global giants have shown their optimism about the prospects of China's economic development and their willingness to commit to long-term cooperation with China.

In September, Danfoss opened a major production base in Haiyan county, East China's Zhejiang province. In October, Medtronic opened its first digital healthcare innovation center in Beijing, while in November, AP Moller-Maersk opened its flagship logistics center in East China's Shanghai with an investment of over 1 billion yuan.

Notably, this year's China International Import Expo in Shanghai recorded $83.49 billion in one-year intended deals, up 4.4 percent from the previous edition and hitting a new high. Meanwhile, the 138th Canton Fair in South China's Guangzhou saw more than 310,000 overseas buyers and registered on-site intended export transactions worth a total of $25.65 billion.

Stable operation, solid progress in high-quality development and inherent strengths of strong resilience and great potential — none of these fundamentals have changed, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics said, citing the overall performance of China's economy.

Xinhua