ADB revises up China 2025 growth forecast

The Asian Development Bank revised up the Chinese mainland's 2025 growth forecast, citing stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the first three quarters and new policy support, according to the December edition of the bank's flagship economic report released on Wednesday.

ADB raised the Chinese mainland's 2025 growth forecast from 4.7 percent in the September edition of the report, to 4.8 percent. The upward revision reflects a stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 5.2 percent in the first three quarters and supportive government policies, the report said.

Net exports contributed 1.5 percentage points to growth in the first three quarters — 0.4 points higher than last year — exceeding expectations. During the same period, exports rose 6.1 percent in US dollar terms and 8.3 percent in volume, driven mainly by non-US markets, according to the development bank.

The recent easing of US–China trade tensions, export market diversification strategies, and the country's strength in high-tech and new-energy products is expected to support export resilience in the fourth quarter despite a high base.

Additionally, the recently announced policy support of 1 trillion yuan ($141.6 billion) for investment and local governments — along with stronger net export performance — likely outweigh domestic weaknesses, supporting a slight upward revision to the 2025 growth forecast, according to the latest ADB report.

The bank's 2026 projection of the Chinese mainland's GDP growth remains unchanged at 4.3 percent.

ADB also lifted its growth outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific, citing stronger-than-expected exports and reduced trade uncertainty following the conclusion of several trade agreements with the United States.

The development bank now projects regional growth of 5.1 percent in 2025 and 4.6 percent in 2026, up 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, from its September forecast.

Economic growth in developing Asia remains resilient, underpinned by solid consumption and continued export strength, the report said.

Resilient consumption supported domestic demand even as investment weakened, weighed down by inventory destocking and persistent, albeit moderating, trade uncertainty.

Exports remained robust, bolstered by strong demand for electronics, semiconductors, and export market diversification, which helped to mitigate the impact of higher US tariffs.

Export strength, underpinned by the upturn in the AI and electronics cycle, will help to sustain economic activity, alongside lower trade uncertainty after several governments concluded trade agreements with the US, the report said.

"Asia and the Pacific's solid economic fundamentals are underpinning robust export performance and steady growth, despite a global trade environment clouded by historic levels of uncertainty over the past year," ADB Chief Economist Albert Park said. "Trade agreements have partly eased that uncertainty, but external and other challenges could still weigh on the outlook. Governments in the region should continue to foster open trade and investment to sustain resilience and growth."