Tentative shifts emerge from Ukraine talks

Recent intensive negotiations involving the United States, Russia, Ukraine and European partners have yielded tentative progress toward resolving the conflict in Ukraine, though a lasting peace remains far off, experts say.

While all parties have shown a willingness to recalibrate their positions, significant hurdles persist, particularly regarding territory and security guarantees for Ukraine, they said.

The latest diplomatic drive was spurred by a US-proposed 28-point peace plan unveiled last month, which was later revised after Ukraine and European governments argued it ceded too much to Russia.

Momentum stalled this week, however, when talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US special envoy Steve Witkoff ended without a breakthrough.

Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov confirmed on Wednesday that Moscow had received the 28-point plan, along with four additional documents concerning a long-term peaceful resolution. Russia could agree to some of the US proposals but remains critical of several others, he said.

Experts described the latest talks — held nearly four years into the conflict — as a "structural probing", with all sides showing a degree of flexibility and adjusting their expectations.

Sun Chenghao, head of the US-European Union program at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy, said this marked the first time the US, Russia, Ukraine and Europe had engaged in intensive consultations around a relatively comprehensive framework.

Directional adjustments

Compared with previous rounds, all parties made directional adjustments to their positions, moving toward more realistic stances, Sun said. Washington is now focused on de-escalation and containing financial costs, while Kyiv, under pressure, is reassessing its room for compromise, he said.

Meanwhile, Russia is using its partial military edge to strengthen its political demands, and Europe is struggling to balance greater strategic autonomy with continued reliance on the US, he added.

Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, highlighted modest breakthroughs, including softened positions on territory and Ukraine's NATO membership.

"Facing domestic political pressure, particularly regarding corruption issues, military setbacks and diplomatic pressure from the US, Ukraine is beginning to soften its stance," Zhang said.

"It is signaling willingness to forgo seeking NATO membership and show flexibility on territory — but only in exchange for irreversible, legally binding security guarantees."

Despite recent progress, both experts cautioned that the path to peace remains a long and complex process, with territorial issues and security guarantees remaining the most sensitive fault lines.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on X on Tuesday that there are no simple solutions to the crisis, identifying territory, frozen Russian assets and security guarantees as the most difficult issues. He added that he is prepared to make necessary decisions.

'Strategic stalemate'

Zhang said the conflict has entered a phase of "strategic stalemate", in which fighting and negotiations proceed in parallel.

Moscow's stance on core issues, especially territory, has not fundamentally softened, he said.

"For Ukraine, everything hinges on security guarantees — assurances that it won't again face a crisis like the current one. The key is whether Europe and the US can offer the reliable security guarantees it wants."

Sun said the conflict's deep historical roots — including NATO's eastward expansion and Russia's security concerns — remain obstacles to a quick resolution.

He also pointed to European skepticism toward Washington's earlier 28-point plan, which many in Europe viewed as offering insufficient security commitments and a weak framework for Ukraine's future security architecture.

In addition, he emphasized growing European dissatisfaction with the US over suspicions that any eventual agreement could involve backroom deals favoring certain interest groups. Such discontent, he said, could push European leaders to adopt tougher financial or diplomatic measures to safeguard their own security interests.

While the current diplomatic engagement may offer a starting point for negotiations, both Sun and Zhang said that achieving stable and lasting peace will require considerably more time, stronger political will and compromise from all sides.

Xinhua contributed to this story.