ASEAN newcomer to have bigger voice

As the newest member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Timor-Leste is set to be heard a little louder in the international arena, opening up more opportunities for one of the region's least developed economies, analysts said.

Timor-Leste formally applied for ASEAN membership in 2011 and became the regional bloc's 11th member during the ASEAN summit held in October in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Timor-Leste's ASEAN membership comes at a time when the regional bloc is grappling with geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism.

Despite these challenges, analysts note that ASEAN offers Timor-Leste a way to diversify its economy and enhance its visibility.

For Joao da Cruz Cardoso, an independent analyst based in Dili, the Timorese capital, ASEAN membership amplifies Timor-Leste's voice, ensuring its relevance even if it is just a small island nation.

"ASEAN ensures that Timor-Leste's opinion carries the same weight as the other members regardless of geographical size and economic standing," Cardoso said.

Noting that economic diversification is a domestic matter, Cardoso said ASEAN membership can help pull Timor-Leste away from oil-centered development to concentrate on developing other sectors like organic coffee, ecotourism, and the blue economy.

"If used well, these sectors present lucrative opportunities for economic growth, including providing employment opportunities," Cardoso said.

Timor-Leste's economy is mainly powered by its oil and gas reserves, with petroleum products accounting for about 90 percent of its total exports. Other significant exports include coffee, sandalwood and seafood. Most of Timorese exports go to China, Indonesia and Thailand.

Proceeds from the Timorese offshore oil and gas fields were stockpiled in the Petroleum Fund, which stood at over $18 billion by the end of 2024. This is roughly equal to 10 times the Timorese economy's annual GDP, according to estimates made by the International Monetary Fund.

Geographically strategic

Timor-Leste is also widely-perceived as geographically strategic owing to its location — it shares a land border with Indonesia and a maritime border with Australia, making it the center of regional geopolitics. The deep-water Ombai-Wetar Strait, a vital shipping route, is located along Timor-Leste's northern coast.

Khoo Ying Hooi, an associate professor of international relations and human rights at the University of Malaya in Kuala Lumpur, said ASEAN gives Timor-Leste access to both economic and security benefits.

She said that as a member of ASEAN, Timor-Leste can now join regional meetings, which can boost the nation's diplomatic presence and anchor it in a regional security order.

"The more immediate benefit that I see, however, lies in the knowledge transfer and also the various development cooperation programs that can help Dili to strengthen its domestic regulatory and institutional capacity," Khoo said.

She said ASEAN membership will also boost the nation's business credentials as it signals to investors that there is potential in Timor-Leste.

The Malaysia External Trade Development Corporation, or MATRADE, is leading a business delegation to Dili from Nov 17 to 21 to strengthen Malaysian-Timorese economic ties following Timor-Leste's accession to ASEAN.

A total of 19 Malaysian companies, including those in education, food industry, and oil and gas-related services, are joining the delegation, according to a MATRADE news release.

Guteriano Neves, an independent policy analyst based in Dili, said ASEAN presents a big market and source of investment for Timor-Leste. However, Neves said attracting investments would require institutional and governance reforms.

"It would require a lot of work at the domestic level. It would require a shift in the development strategy and mindset of the policymakers and the framework of policymaking in the country," Neves said.

Neves said that Timor-Leste is also bringing something to the table — by sharing its experience of building "a successful democratic and peaceful country despite development challenges".

Timor-Leste is the youngest country in Asia, having gained full independence in 2002 after years of colonization and occupation. With a GDP per capita of just over $1,500, Timor-Leste is also designated as a Least Developed Country by the UN.