Deforestation is climate action's blind spot

As COP30 convenes in Belém, in the heart of the Amazon, the world's focus is narrowly set on carbon emissions and net-zero pledges. Yet, this tunnel vision blinds us to the elephant in the room: Ecosystem destruction is not a carbon problem alone — it is the systemic sabotage of the planet's most powerful climate control mechanism.

Since 2023, extreme weather events have shattered most model projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Meteorologists are grappling with this new reality. Standard climate models were designed for a stable world that we have irrevocably left behind. But wait, there was a crucial omission. The dynamic land-atmosphere water cycle — powerfully mediated by living forests — has inexplicably been relegated to a mere footnote in the carbon story.

Indigenous wisdom has long understood what science is only now proving. Davi Kopenawa Yanomami, who wrote The Falling Sky, told me: "Don't white people see that if they cut down the forest, the rain will dry up?"

This isn't metaphor — it's the physics of the biotic pump. Forests function as the beating heart of the hydrological cycle. Trees transpire vast volumes of water vapor, which rises and rapidly condenses into clouds, aided by hygroscopic cloud-seeds also emitted by the plants. This intense condensation causes an abrupt drop in atmospheric pressure, which creates a powerful, natural suction force that pulls humid air from the oceans deep into continental interiors.

The biotic pump theory was pioneered by Russian scientists Anastassia Makarieva and Victor Gorshkov, in close cooperation with Brazilian researchers, including myself. Our studies have revealed this mechanism operates globally. In the Amazon, the pump pulls trade winds from the North Atlantic across the equator, penetrating deep into South America. In Siberia, boreal forests maintain the "Eurasian flying rivers" — crucial atmospheric moisture sources for vast portions of China and Central Asia. This is how forests create their own climate and moisture flow. Remove the trees, and the pump breaks. Humid air is no longer drawn inward. Dry air descends, clouds vanish, and the land rapidly turns arid.

When we break the biotic pump, a menacing phenomenon emerges: massive, stagnant bubbles of hot, dry air settle over deforested regions, blocking humidity circulation and triggering desert-like conditions across vast continental areas. This mechanism explains seemingly disconnected catastrophic events: unprecedented heat waves, prolonged droughts, and apocalyptic flooding. The flying rivers of moisture that once circulated healthily over preserved areas are now violently colliding with these atmospheric barriers.

The physics of the consequences is devastatingly straightforward: Deforestation eliminates transpiration, cloud formation is suppressed and natural cooling collapses. Where dense white clouds over the Amazon once reflected up to 70 percent of solar radiation back to space, bare ground now absorbs that heat. This process dramatically amplifies regional warming, leading to climate consequences far beyond what carbon emissions alone can explain.

Here is the uncomfortable truth: Even if we zeroed out carbon emissions, the climate emergency would persist without massive ecological restoration. While carbon dioxide is key to long-term warming, ecosystem destruction introduces a dangerous short-term multiplier. By damaging the ocean-atmosphere-land water cycle — effectively the Earth's air conditioning system — we drastically amplify the climate's sensitivity to carbon dioxide. For South-South cooperation and the vision of an ecological civilization to be more than just buzzwords, we must face this reality: Forests aren't just carbon sinks. They are the planet's primary climate regulators, its freshwater generators, and the very foundation of continental habitability.

The good news is that nature has the regenerative power to reclaim what was destroyed. Over 400 million years, the biosphere has conquered continents through unconceivably complex and incredibly sophisticated mechanisms. Recognizing this natural prowess must become the gauging sign of our own existential intelligence. Nature had eons to spare; we do not. Yet, we can still choose to learn and give back a helping hand to speed up this regreening.

The stakes are truly global. Just as Amazonian deforestation threatens South America's water security, the exploitation of Siberian forests endangers the stability of the water cycle for large swaths of Europe and Asia. The flying rivers that bring essential rainfall to much of China are directly dependent on Siberia's forests, just as South America's agriculture relies on the Amazon's biotic pump.

Protecting and restoring ecosystems must therefore become an absolute priority alongside reduction in emissions. This mandate requires fundamentally reforming agriculture and cattle ranching, currently the main vectors of destruction. It means recognizing that supply chain restructuring isn't simply about carbon accounting but about maintaining and restoring the living systems that regulate water, temperature and climate stability.

Think of it like treating a liver disease: a doctor tells the alcoholic to "stop drinking" — that is, stop polluting. This is essential, but it is wholly insufficient. The damaged liver needs healing. Similarly, ecosystems require proactive protection and restoration. If we continue losing and degrading our forests, we sacrifice the planet's vital regulatory organs capable of compensating for the damage already done.

Hosting COP30 in the Amazon is more than symbolic — it's strategically essential. This is the critical juncture where the world must finally elevate ecosystem restoration from a peripheral concern to the core of global climate action. We have an unprecedented opportunity to forge a powerful integration that unites the wisdom of ancient Indigenous knowledge with the insights of cutting-edge biogeophysics. This location can catalyze South-South partnerships, modeling a paradigm shift that fundamentally recognizes the extraordinary, irreplaceable capacity of intact land ecosystems to cool the surface — magnificently converting water vapor into clouds and rain. This is a vital, global function that no man-made technology can replicate or substitute.

Since 2023, the biosphere has shown worrying signs of multiple-organ collapse. But a cure exists. Give forests a chance, and they will heal the climate — and us. This conviction is not naive optimism. It is the practical application of physics, deep ecology, and four billion years of evolutionary genius.

The challenge for COP30 is clear, yet momentous: Will we finally acknowledge the elephant in the room? Will we commit — without compromise — to fully restoring our still marvelous green planet?

The author is a retired researcher from Brazil's National Institute for Space Research and a specialist in the Amazon and Earth system sciences. He is known for his work on "flying rivers" and the biotic pump theory of forest-driven climate regulation.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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