Value of auto service ecosystem forecast to eclipse manufacturing

The automotive service ecosystem is emerging as a competitive edge in the auto industry, driven by advancements in intelligent and autonomous driving technology, an industry think tank noted.

In the era of artificial intelligence, evaluating a country's automotive competitiveness requires new standards, said Zhang Yongwei, president of China EV100.

He was speaking at the First Autonomous Mobility Ecosystem Forum held in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, earlier this month.

While manufacturing was once the primary focus, digital and AI technologies, along with mobility-related services, are now playing an increasingly significant role, Zhang said.

The service industry value generated during a car's usage could potentially surpass that of manufacturing. He predicts that the auto service market will exceed 8 trillion yuan ($1.12 trillion) by 2028.

Research data indicate that the auto aftermarket — covering parts replacement and maintenance services — will reach about 1.6 trillion yuan by 2025, with growth projected to reach 2.1 trillion yuan by 2028.

The broader 8-trillion-yuan service market also includes vehicle sales, financial and insurance services, energy solutions and aftermarket customization, as well as renewal services.

To foster synergy between intelligent auto manufacturing and service industries, Zhang underscored the importance of leveraging digital innovation and AI tools.

He added that autonomous driving enterprises should be central to orchestrating ecosystem integration, along with steps such as establishing pilot projects and enabling the emergence of national and global service providers.

According to Shenzhen Yinwang Intelligent Technology, Huawei's smart car business arm, the upgrade to ADS 4.0 has raised the use of urban assisted driving from 15 percent to nearly 20 percent, while the usage in parking scenarios has reached 42 percent.

Li Wenguang, president of Yinwang intelligent driving product line, said: "These figures demonstrate that user acceptance of intelligent driving is continuously improving, but the potential for penetration in different scenarios still needs further exploration."

He forecast that commercialization will soon accelerate: highway Level 3 autonomous driving is expected to see large-scale adoption by 2026, urban L4 by 2027, and unmanned trunk logistics by 2028.

"Autonomous driving is expected to reshape the mobility ecosystem and create new industrial opportunities," Li said.

He added that Yinwang will launch the Qiankun ecosystem open platform. It will provide industry tool kits for partners, and establish an OpenLab to support development, testing, and solution deployment, boosting collaboration in intelligent driving.

The period between 2025 and 2027 is anticipated to be the "golden three years" for commercialization, marked by advancements in technological sophistication, policy refinement and ecosystem collaboration, according to the Autonomous Driving Mobility Ecosystem 2025 report, released by China EV100 and Yinwang at the forum.

The commercialization of autonomous driving, according to the report, relies on creating a comprehensive ecosystem encompassing aspects like parking, charging, maintenance, insurance and other connected services.

It also envisions optimistic prospects for L4 autonomous driving, emphasizing its potential to tackle pressing issues such as parking shortages, charging complexities and inefficiencies in after-sales services, all while enhancing convenience and lowering costs.

Parking lots are ideal scenarios for the use of autonomous driving because they offer a well-defined and controlled environment, said Sun Longxi, president of Keytop, a smart parking solutions provider based in Xiamen, Fujian province.

Sun revealed statistics indicating a national shortage of over 80 million parking spaces, with parking-related issues contributing to 30 percent of urban traffic congestion.

Autonomous vehicles can mitigate these problems through valet parking and city-level dispatching — enabling cars to park themselves, raising space utilization from around 50 percent, and optimizing lot designs to create additional spaces, Sun explained.

Li Hongqing, CEO of Star Charge, highlighted ongoing challenges in EV charging, such as finding stations and complex operation. Fully automating the process — encompassing parking, plug-in, instant charging, seamless payment, and departure — is essential to solving the issue.

The company has partnered with automakers including BMW to implement related charging systems.

"Autonomous driving is not a 'one-man show' by a single company; it requires collaboration among automakers, tech companies, service operators, policymakers, and others. Through standardization, data interoperability, and resource sharing, the industry can transition from being 'technology-driven' to 'ecosystem-driven'," Zhang said.