Economic growth in 'upward momentum'

China's economy is showing signs of stabilizing while structural upgrading accelerates, with economists highlighting growing momentum from digital consumption, high-tech manufacturing and services, alongside expectations of continued policy support as the country prepares for the next five-year plan.

Despite some softening in October indicators, they said underlying fundamentals remain resilient and new growth drivers are becoming an increasingly important anchor for future expansion.

Economists also noted that despite facing challenges and uncertainties ahead, China still retains ample policy room, strengthening confidence that the economy will maintain a stable and improving trajectory. Expanding market space, strengthening innovation and steady progress in building a unified national market are among the key forces underpinning growth.

Their comments came as data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday that China's economic performance held steady in October amid headwinds and uncertainties, with industrial production reporting stable growth, driven by strong performances in equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors.

China's value-added industrial output rose by 4.9 percent year-on-year in October, following a 6.5 percent rise in September, according to the NBS.

Notably, equipment and high-tech manufacturing reported strong performances in October, with respective expansions of 8 percent and 7.2 percent.

Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, noted that along with pass-through effects from weak demand, October's slowdown in industrial output partly reflected calendar distortions, saying, "There were two more working days in September than a year earlier, while October had one fewer working day".

Meanwhile, he highlighted that the structure of output remains a bright spot, underpinned by the strong performance of equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors. "This shows the strong impact of large-scale equipment renewals and China's ongoing manufacturing transformation."

Meanwhile, NBS data showed retail sales, a key measure of consumer spending, grew by 2.9 percent year-on-year in October, compared to 3 percent growth in September.

Wang said the October consumption figures reflect the fading impact of earlier subsidies and a high comparison base in the previous year. He stressed that "the key to bolstering consumption is to accelerate the stabilization of the housing market to effectively lift consumer confidence".

Sheana Yue, senior economist at Oxford Economics, said October's retail data offered cautious optimism. "Seasonally adjusted retail sales edged up slightly by 0.5 percent month-on-month in October, marking the second consecutive month of tiny gains."

This is in line with surveys by the NBS and the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, which suggest improved consumer sentiment, Yue noted, adding that a breakdown of these surveys and service retail sales data suggests that consumers are "increasingly shifting spending from goods to services".

During a news conference held on Friday in Beijing, NBS spokesman Fu Linghui said China's economy has withstood pressures stemming from a more complicated external environment and domestic structural adjustments.

He noted that new quality productive forces are accelerating rapidly, with the output of intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing rising 54.7 percent year-on-year in the first 10 months, alongside strong growth in green material production.

"China's economy has a solid foundation, many advantages, strong resilience and great potential," Fu said, noting that policy support and structural upgrading will continue to strengthen momentum.

Fu's views were echoed by Wang Wei, former director of the Institute of Market Economy at the Development Research Center of the State Council, who said China's economy remains generally stable this year, but what deserves greater attention is the new growth momentum that is accelerating.

"China's economic growth is showing a trend of being stable in pace but rising in new and upward momentum. This is very positive," Wang said.

She noted that China's vast market, large population and diversified consumer demand are fueling new drivers of growth, as digital, green, services and inbound consumption expand rapidly.

On the macroeconomic policy front, Wang said she expects China's fiscal policy to remain proactive, while monetary policy needs to shift further toward supporting innovation.

Looking ahead, Yue from Oxford Economics said policy ambitions under China's next Five-Year Plan suggest that stimulus is likely in the pipeline.

ouyangshijia@chinadaily.com.cn