WTO raises 2025 global trade growth forecast to 2.4%

GENEVA -- The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Tuesday raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025 to 2.4 percent, up from its previous projection of 0.9 percent made in August. Meanwhile, the forecast for 2026 was revised downward to 0.5 percent from 1.8 percent.

According to the WTO's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, global GDP is projected to grow by 2.7 percent in 2025 and 2.6 percent in 2026.

The report said the volume of world merchandise trade, as measured by the average of exports and imports, expanded by 4.9 percent year-on-year in the first half of this year.

The WTO attributed the strong performance to several factors, including frontloading of imports in North America ahead of expected higher US tariffs, disinflation and supportive fiscal policies, solid growth in emerging markets, and a surge in trade of AI-related goods.

Trade among developing economies also saw a notable rise. The value of South-South trade climbed 8 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, outpacing the 6 percent growth in overall global trade value. AI-related goods, including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment, played a particularly significant role, accounting for nearly half of total trade growth during the same six-month period. The trade value of such products surged 20 percent year-on-year.

At a press conference, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that despite the "stiff headwinds" from the US unilateral actions and unprecedented rise in trade policy uncertainty, trade has shown resilience. She stressed that such resilience underscores that there is a core in the multilateral trading system that continues to work well.

The report said the main downside risk to the outlook is the spread of trade-restrictive measures and policy uncertainty to more economies and sectors.

It warned that rising import prices and slower trade shipments could signal higher inflation later this year, as inventories decline in sectors heavily affected by tariffs.

According to the report, trade performance varies widely across regions. Asia and Africa are expected to record the fastest export growth in 2025, while Europe will likely see slower growth and North America will face declining exports.

The report also noted that the growth of services exports, though indirectly affected by tariffs, is set to slow from 6.8 percent in 2024 to 4.6 percent in 2025, and further to 4.4 percent in 2026.

Europe is projected to lead services export growth in 2025, followed by Asia, the Middle East, and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), it added.