5 veteran lawmakers in fray for Japan's ruling party leadership

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party launched its leadership election campaign on Monday, with five lawmakers entering the fray.

The contenders are Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, former economic security ministers Takayuki Kobayashi and Sanae Takaichi, and former LDP secretary-general Toshimitsu Motegi. All five also competed in last year's leadership race.

On Monday, the candidates delivered speeches at party headquarters in Tokyo, marking the official start of full-scale debate.

Yangchoon Kwak, a senior professor in the College of Economics at Rikkyo University in Japan, said that in past LDP leadership contests, policy has rarely influenced the outcome, and this time is likely no exception.

He explained that former LDP president Shigeru Ishiba's resignation lacked a clear justification, as public opinion overwhelmingly supported his continuation. "Nonetheless, party members placed the blame on him following a series of election defeats," Kwak said.

Despite the nominal dismantling of factions, "factional logic" still dominates, with lawmakers "prioritizing only candidates deemed capable of winning", he said. This makes the race a "leadership contest without the people", driven more by self-preservation than principle, he added.

Still, the upcoming contest is widely expected to focus on issues such as cooperation with opposition parties, economic measures to tackle rising prices, and rebuilding the party after successive election defeats and funding scandals.

Experts said the leadership race is driven less by policy debates than by factional maneuvering and electoral strategy. Even after the new president takes office as prime minister, the reality of leading a minority government will remain, forcing the administration to devote much of its energy to managing the opposition parties, they added.

Kwak added that even if the new party leader becomes prime minister, the LDP's minority status will make it difficult to implement bold policies. "As a result, the new administration will have to spend a significant amount of time dealing with the opposition parties."

Even when policies are ultimately passed, they are often merely the result of compromises with the opposition and still face the risk of being rejected in the Diet (Japan's legislature) or by the budget committee, leaving citizens as the ultimate losers, he said.

Hidetoshi Tashiro, chief economist at Japanese consultancy Infinity LLC, said that while opposition parties differ, most support tax-cutting populism. The LDP must carefully manage pressure from this populism when considering cooperation, he said.

He pointed out that in the July 20 election, the far-right Sanseito party achieved "the greatest victory", increasing its seats from two to 14.The party's influence on social media helped attract supporters of tax-cutting populism, significantly boosting its parliamentary presence, Tashiro said.

In the upcoming campaign, LDP candidates will participate in debates and deliver speeches at party-organized rallies in Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka.

Ahead in polls

Recent polls from several Japanese media outlets indicate that Agriculture Minister Koizumi and former economic security minister Takaichi are leading in support.

A total of 590 ballots will be cast, evenly split between votes from Diet members and party members. Ballots from party members will be finalized the day before lawmakers vote on Oct 4, after which both sets will be counted together to determine the new party leader.

Once a new LDP president is selected, the parliament will hold a prime ministerial designation vote. Although the ruling bloc has failed to secure a majority in either chamber, the new LDP leader is still highly likely to become Japan's next prime minister, as the LDP remains the largest party.

At the same time, opposition parties see the contest as an opportunity to demonstrate their relevance and promote their own policies.

On Saturday, Yoshihiko Noda, president of the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, said that the policy proposals and statements of LDP leadership candidates reflect the perspectives championed by opposition parties.

Xinhua contributed to this story.

houjunjie@chinadaily.com.cn