Uncertainty, challenges weighing on China-US soybean trade partnership

As China and the United States recently agreed to further extend the pause on tariff hikes, US soybean producers and industry representatives said they would love to see the two countries' soybean trade partnership get back on track and Chinese buyers increase their purchases from US producers.

"US soybean farmers are very appreciative of all the past experience, and have partnerships that we've developed with China, especially when it comes to soybean trade," Janna Fritz, chair of the US Soybean Export Council and a sixth-generation farmer from Michigan, told China Daily on Thursday.

On the same day, Fritz delivered a speech at Soy Connext 2025, a global summit hosted by the USSEC from Wednesday to Friday in Washington, DC. The event, now in its fourth year, connects US soybean farmers, international buyers, food producers, feed industry representatives and industry leaders.

Dire situation

Bruno Coletti, lead market analyst for oilseeds at global grain trader Cargill, painted a grim picture at the meeting. The US, which is the world's second-largest soybean producer after Brazil, faces a dire situation in the 2025-26 marketing year, he said, adding that as of mid-August, the US' committed sales stood at 10.2 percent, its second-lowest in nearly 20 years.

"I do not know what number it (exports to China) will end up with, but it is a major source of concern.We still have time, but the clock is ticking," Coletti said.

China, a major buyer of global soybeans, holds critical importance for US exports, he said.

According to calculations based on data from the US Department of Agriculture and China's General Administration of Customs, China's share in US soybean exports dropped to 44.6 percent last year, after peaking at 62.4 percent in 2011.

Coletti highlighted the risk factors for the upcoming soybean harvest season, including unfavorable weather, trade timing and policy uncertainties. Escalating trade tensions under the current US administration have only made the situation worse, he said.

The US has been sharply raising tariffs on imports from most of its trade partners this year, forcing China to mete out reciprocal measures to safeguard its interests, including raising tariffs on soybean imports from the US.

As a result, Chinese importers have shifted toward Brazilian suppliers, and data from the GAC shows that their imports of US soybeans dropped 11.4 percent year-on-year in July.

In a letter sent to US President Donald Trump on Tuesday, the American Soybean Association said China currently has zero new crop export orders for US soybeans for the 2025-26 marketing year, adding that US soybean farmers "are standing at a trade and financial precipice".

ASA President Caleb Ragland urged the White House to secure a deal removing duties and including significant soybean purchases. "Soybean farmers are under extreme financial stress as prices drop and costs for inputs and equipment continue to climb," he said in the letter.

USSEC Chair Fritz, who is also director of the ASA, emphasized the deep ties with China. "We've partnered and mutually benefited from the growing relationship," she said.

"It is a generational factor to look at the longevity of our family farm, in part due to the relationship that we have with China. And I would love that to continue. We appreciate the relationship that we've developed. If we can continue the relationship, that would be ideal," said Fritz, who has visited China three times.

"Every time I do, I am encouraged by the beneficial relationship that we have with China. I love the culture. I've had great experiences every time I've visited," she added.

Long-standing relationship

Jim Sutter, CEO of the USSEC, praised Chinese partners and their long-standing relationship with the US soybean community. "Chinese customers are wonderful," he said.

"We've been working there for 43 years, since 1982. I've had the chance to visit China many times. I know the companies there, the people who utilize US soy. They've got great industries, they've built up a big crushing industry, a big feed industry, livestock production, aquaculture production. So, they're very, very impressive," Sutter said.

"We're going to have a bountiful crop. We've just heard presentations at our Soy Connext meeting about how the crop is looking very good....And we hope that Chinese buyers will very soon be making purchase contracts for US soy," he added.

Commenting on a potential US-China trade deal, Sutter said, "I certainly think it will be reached this year, but I don't know exactly when.I hope it will be reached soon."

Zhang Xiaoping, the USSEC's representative for Greater China, emphasized the mutual benefits of a trade deal.

"Reaching a trade agreement is something that will offer both China and the US win-win outcomes," he said, citing recent bilateral trade talks in Geneva, London and Stockholm.

Zhang said he remains cautiously optimistic. "The agricultural trade between the two countries will not decouple, because the complementarity is too strong," he added.

However, Fritz said she remains hopeful for a preharvest deal, adding that while some areas have begun reaping crops, the bulk of harvesting will start in September.

yifanxu@chinadailyusa.com