What to expect at upcoming Trump-Putin summit in Alaska?

BEIJING - US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet on August 15th in Alaska to discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, marking the first talks between the leaders of the two countries since 2021.

On the campaign trail in 2023 and 2024, Trump made repeated claims that he would end the Ukraine crisis within 24 hours of winning presidency. The summit, Trump's latest push for peace in the region, has been billed by the White House as a high-stakes push to end the Ukraine crisis.

But the prospects for a breakthrough appear uncertain, with the two leaders approaching the talks from sharply different positions and many of America's allies warning that any deal struck without Kyiv's participation will lack legitimacy.

The plans for the face-to-face meeting between the two leaders surfaced after Putin's three-hour working meeting with Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff during the latter's visit to Moscow on Wednesday.

Putin this week offered the Trump administration a broad ceasefire proposal that requires significant territorial concessions from Kyiv and seeks international acceptance of Russia's claims in return for stopping the fighting, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing European and Ukrainian officials.

Trump said Friday that he intended to secure a ceasefire, even suggesting that "swapping of territories" could be part of the deal. While he has not specified what that would entail, the phrase has drawn immediate pushback from Ukraine and its allies.

Ukraine has repeatedly said it will not accept any arrangement that cedes its territory. President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Saturday the Alaska talks for excluding his government and warned that lasting peace cannot be achieved without Ukraine at the table.

"Any decisions made against us, any decisions made without Ukraine, are at the same time decisions against peace," Zelensky said in a video address. "They will bring nothing. These are dead decisions; they will never work."

European capitals reacted swiftly to Trump's suggestion of a land swap. Leaders from the European Commission, France, Italy, Britain, Germany, Poland and Finland issued a joint statement on Saturday affirming that Ukraine's borders, as recognized internationally, cannot be changed by force. The statement underscored that Ukraine must be directly involved in any negotiations regarding its sovereignty.

The last round of Russia-Ukraine talks held in Istanbul on July 23 concluded with no breakthrough towards a ceasefire but an agreement on another prisoner swap with civilian detainees included.

Russia and Ukraine remain quite apart from each other while exchanges of drone and missile attacks continue to inflict heavy casualties and infrastructure damage.

Analysts say that even if Trump and Putin agree on broad principles, achieving a workable ceasefire will be far from simple, as Russia controls significant territory, including areas it has fortified heavily over the past year, while Ukraine remains committed to regaining its land.

A halt to fighting would require agreement on troop withdrawals, security guarantees and the future status of disputed regions - issues that have defied resolution since the conflict began in 2022. Without clear enforcement mechanisms, experts warn, any truce could unravel quickly.

Whether the Alaska summit moves the Ukraine crisis toward resolution or entrenches a fragile stalemate will depend on whether the leaders can bridge deep divides. With positions hardened and trust in short supply, a ceasefire, if it comes at all, will not be easy.