Greater opportunities amid adversity

The world is undergoing an accelerated transformation with growing instability and uncertainty. Donald Trump's return to power as the president of the United States has brought new shocks to the world, triggering fresh changes in international relations.

Since Trump took office, the rules-based international order has shifted toward one based on power politics, and the US and its allies have gradually drifted apart.

The essence of the structural contradictions between China and the US lies in the outcome of structural power shifts during the process of globalization. Since 2010, when China surpassed Japan to be the world's second-largest economy, Western countries have habitually abandoned themselves in the assumed paradigm of "historical determinism", which conceives that the major-power competition has entered a new phase when China is believed to dominate in the Asia-Pacific region and thereafter pursue global hegemony. For China and the US, these structural contradictions have become particularly pronounced. The US government has clearly articulated its stance of strategic competition with China, promoting the perception of "China threat" across sectors and forming a broad consensus nationwide, which, at times, even goes beyond major political parties to become a political stance of the country.

The first Trump administration and then the Joe Biden administration released National Security Strategy, both of which explicitly label China as "the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the … power to advance that objective". Therefore, the US' containment and suppression against China is likely to continue in the future.

To some extent, there has been decoupling between China and the US.

China is now the fourth-largest trading partner of the US.

Economically, the US market's reliance on Chinese products has decreased, with the share of Chinese goods in the US market gradually declining. Meanwhile, China has also reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds proportionately. These changes show the adjustments of the China-US economic relations. In terms of people-to-people exchanges, fewer US citizens hold a favorable view toward China. This is coupled with a trend where mutual perceptions and attitudes between the two societies are becoming increasingly distant and hence estranged.

As for physical connectivity, there is also the likelihood of disconnection in data links between the two countries. There are no planned cable projects between the two after 2025. Moreover, air connectivity between the two has not fully recovered yet. This physical decoupling is affecting people-to-people exchanges and interactions between the two nations.

China-US relations have been seriously affected during Trump's second term. It has been observed over the past two months that the current administration features a combination of domestic political purges and a strategic retreat in foreign policy.

First, the Trump administration is focusing on domestic reform. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) plans to significantly reduce the size of the US government workforce. In effect, the US currently has around 428 government departments and agencies, and the long-term goal of DOGE is to cut this number down to around 99, which means that approximately three-quarters of government personnel would be laid off. Unlike the Biden administration, the Trump government places greater emphasis on issues such as tariff policies and trade deficits.

Second, the Trump administration is withdrawing from multilateral institutions, as it is believed that the existing international system has impeded the US' development. The US seeks to break free from the institutional constraints of global governance, which is a clear exposition of its unilateralism. As the US is reluctant to play the leadership role in numerous areas of global governance and refuses to participate in the rule-making process, the risk of global governance dysfunction is increasing.

Last, at its core, the Trump administration focuses on interests, with one of its notable measures being the policy of so-called reciprocal tariffs. The Trump administration's move to undermine the post-World War II trade and financial system is self-destructive in nature. Unilateral sanctions not only weaken the credit foundation of dollar hegemony but also accelerate the formation of a multipolar currency system.

While the US benefits from the dominant position of the dollar as a reserve currency, there are also challenges. If the US government fails to make corresponding adjustments, the initiatives of revitalizing its manufacturing sector and reducing its trade deficit will be out of the question.

The world today is undergoing profound changes of great complexity. Although the Trump administration still faces many obstacles in achieving its strategic goals, in the long run, the China-US relations will certainly be a centenary game. Amid this major transformation and upheaval, China has also ushered in greater opportunities. It is imperative for China to maintain its strategic focus and remain committed to its development path.

To start with, China should further its modernization. The third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized that, in the new era and under the new circumstances, China must focus on advancing modernization as its central task, and by pursuing deepened reform across the board, stimulate the development of new quality productive forces. China is committed to removing institutional bottlenecks hindering new quality productive forces and establishing new relations of production aligned with their development, thereby providing significant insights for the international community on sustainable development and climate governance.

Second, China should inject fresh momentum into globalization. By means of the comprehensive, institutionally-driven openness, with the Belt and Road Initiative as a platform, China is determined to promote regional integration and global economic growth, safeguarding stable growth of global trade.

According to the white paper titled "The Belt and Road Initiative: A Key Pillar of the Global Community of Shared Future", China has signed over 230 cooperation documents with more than 150 countries and over 30 international organizations. According to the World Bank, by 2030, investments related to the BRI may lift 7.6 million people out of extreme poverty and 32 million out of moderate poverty in partner countries.

Third, China needs to reform and improve the current global governance mechanisms. The vacancy left behind after the US withdrawal from the global governance system may prompt China to fill the "leadership vacuum". However, the real intention of the Trump administration is to contain China by creating a "responsibility trap". Despite US efforts to undermine the global governance system, China can mitigate risks by pursuing multilateral cooperation.

China should promote regional cooperation and common development by leveraging regional organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, thereby enhancing the inclusiveness of regional economic development. China can work with other developing nations to make global governance more inclusive and equitable, by highlighting the common needs and future development of Global South countries.

The author is vice-president and a professor at China Foreign Affairs University. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.