An outdated path to nowhere

From "America First" to the strategic orientation of a zero-sum game, as well as the tactic of the tariff stick, Donald Trump's second term has subverted the existing rules of economic globalization and global governance. Every move and utterance of his administration epitomizes US hegemonism.

As the region geographically closest to the United States, Latin America will inevitably bear the brunt of the US' bullying diplomacy. Its cooperation with China will also be impacted, primarily in two key dimensions.

First, the US administration's policy toward Latin America is likely a revival of the Monroe Doctrine. Over two centuries, the doctrine has evolved to encapsulate several critical objectives, including safeguarding against potential security threats, excluding extraregional powers, upholding the US hegemony, and constructing a hemispheric alliance system. Some US conservatives hold that regional cooperation within Latin America and engagement with extraregional countries undermine many of the US' interests in the region.

Second, the US administration's approach to Latin America is starkly marked by its propensity to leverage power and coercion. For instance, it has coerced Panama into withdrawing from China's Belt and Road Initiative, ratcheted up sanctions on Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, and leveraged tariffs to pressure Mexico into making continuous concessions on border management with the US. Judging from these actions, it appears that the US may intensify coercive tactics when pursuing US interests on the continent.

In a recent interview with Fox, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth remarked that the policy missteps of the Barack Obama administration had enabled China to make significant "inroads" in Latin America. He emphasized that the US must reclaim its "backyard". While Hegseth's comments reflect a broader sentiment within the US Cabinet, they conspicuously disregard the three fundamental facts that have underpinned the rapid progress of China-Latin America relations.

The first is the increasing self-reliance of Latin American nations. Since their independence, these countries have prioritized the pursuit of sovereign independence and policy autonomy, a goal that is especially conspicuous in their relations with Washington. Since 1898, when the US was growing to be a global hegemon through the Spanish-American War, resisting US neocolonialism has been a crucial agenda for Latin America in defending its sovereignty and striving for autonomy. In this process, Latin American countries have not only actively explored various paths for regional integration but also worked hard to advance a diversified foreign policy. For example, during the Cold War, these countries pursued independent and autonomous foreign policies. At the dawn of the new century, they established the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, which excludes the US. Strengthening cooperation with China aligns with the new trends of international cooperation and represents a choice of diplomatic autonomy for Latin American countries. It also serves as an effective means for them to counterbalance the US.Thus, the US administration's attempt to reassert hegemony is structurally at odds with the growing self-reliance of Latin American nations. In a sense, the US policy of treating Latin America as its "backyard" is nothing more than wishful thinking.

The second is the robust endogenous momentum of China-Latin America cooperation. The strategic anxiety of the US toward China-Latin America cooperation primarily originates from China's highly efficient economic and trade collaboration with the continent. However, the efficiency of cooperation is based on the significant economic complementarity between the two sides. This complementary relationship is not only evident in the trade structure but also in the supply and demand dynamics in investment. It is based on the shared aspirations of China and Latin America for economic globalization, industrial structure upgrading and enhanced modernization, rather than an economic policy aimed at "de-Americanization". It is certainly not bloc cooperation targeting the US. The declaration of the third Ministerial Meeting of the Forum of China and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (China-CELAC Forum) in 2021 explicitly underscored the continuous deepening of a new era in the China-Latin America relationship that is equal, mutually beneficial, innovative, open and people-oriented. Given the vibrant and dynamic nature of China-Latin America economic and trade cooperation, it is challenging for the US to achieve its goal of coercing Latin American countries to decouple from China.

The third is the shared vision of China and Latin America on the international governance system. Judging from the declarations of the past three ministerial meetings of the China-CELAC Forum, both sides share a common vision in supporting globalization and multilateralism, and opposing power politics and unilateralism. This fully reflects the nature of a China-Latin America community with a shared future.

For now, the US' policy toward Latin America is marked by a pronounced protectionist and unilateralist inclination, coupled with a conspicuous absence of substantive cooperation initiatives. In this context, China and Latin America should deepen their collaboration, transforming challenges into strategic opportunities. China-Latin America cooperation has the following advantages.

First and foremost, the appeal of China's diplomatic principle of pursuing the greater good and shared interests is poised to grow in Latin America. The US administration's actions exude an imperialist arrogance, trampling on the hard-earned rights to autonomy that Latin American nations have pursued since their independence two centuries ago. In stark contrast, China-Latin America relations have consistently adhered to the principles of equality and mutual benefit. Moreover, China's open and inclusive posture resonates more closely with the policy aspirations of Latin American states.

Second, China-Latin America economic and trade cooperation remains highly predictable. According to my calculation, between 2014 and 2023, the average annual growth rate of China-Latin America trade reached a robust 8.5 percent, significantly outpacing the 4.8 percent of US-Latin America trade. The vibrancy of China-Latin America trade is markedly superior. Should the US impose additional tariffs on Latin American countries, it could potentially accelerate the trade facilitation negotiation process between China and some Latin American nations. China has already signed free trade agreements with five Latin American countries. If the US fails to provide more investment and aid to Latin America, the expectations of Latin American countries for investment from China will only rise further. Overall, Latin America is suffering from low economic growth and increasing challenges in national governance. In this context, the open and efficient cooperation between China and Latin America is more aligned with the international cooperation needs of regional countries.

Third, multilateralism serves as the cornerstone of China-Latin America cooperation. Both sides are staunch defenders and beneficiaries of multilateralism. Since Trump's return to the White House, the US has once again engaged in a series of withdrawals from international bodies and agreements, severely disrupting the multilateral order. Amid this situation, China and Latin American countries should resolutely defend multilateralism, enhance the coordination of their positions, and deepen cooperation on global issues such as climate change, sustainable development and poverty reduction. Together, they should jointly address the impact brought about by the US' unilateral actions. The year marks another occasion for the China-CELAC Forum to update its agenda. Both sides should fully leverage the platform to advance all-round cooperation, while supporting Latin American nations in forging regional consensus, enhancing regional governance capacity, and defending their rights to independent development.

The author is a senior research fellow at the Institute of Latin American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a professor at the School of International Politics and Economics at the University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.