Significant fallout on US tourism expected after rare travel warning

China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued a travel advisory on Wednesday, urging Chinese citizens to assess risks before traveling to the US due to deteriorating trade relations and domestic safety concerns.

The timing is significant as Washington increased its "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese goods to 84 percent, prompting China to retaliate with an 84 percent levy on US imports on Wednesday.

The US move raised the total additional tariffs imposed by the current Trump administration to 104 percent. On Wednesday, President Trump announced a further increase to 125 percent.

The travel caution, following the Ministry of Education's risk alert to tourists and students planning to go to the US, signals that trade tensions are bleeding into other realms of bilateral exchange, including people-to-people engagement and cultural diplomacy. 

This rare advisory also reinforces the Chinese government's protective stance over its citizens, who have long been concerned about safety in the US, with gun shootings and other violent incidents often making headlines.

If the caution persists, they may increasingly perceive the US as less desirable or affordable for trips.

For the US tourism industry, the fallout will be substantial. Hotels, luxury retailers, and tour operators may have to adjust strategies, targeting travelers from other countries, but replacing the spending power and scale of Chinese tourists will be challenging.

If caution prevails, the US may lose its central role in the itineraries of the world's most prolific travelers. For one thing, rising costs, especially aviation tariffs, will likely increase airline ticket prices. Middle-class families may opt for cost-effective alternatives like Southeast Asia or visa-free destinations in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.