Philippine self-determination in the crosshairs

On March 11, Philippine police detained former president Rodrigo Duterte and transferred him to The Hague, the Netherlands. While the government claimed it was not involved in the investigation, it stated the obligation to fulfill commitments to international organizations given the ICC's arrest warrant. Western media outlets including The New York Times hailed this as a "significant victory", yet behind this humanitarian pretext lies political undercurrents within Philippines' border and beyond. The question of who has the right to judge the merits and demerits of Duterte's anti-drug campaign has sparked nationwide debate in the Philippines and drawn global attention.

Strong public support

The Philippines' decades-long struggle with narcotics reached crisis proportions, with the US once designating it as a major global methamphetamine producer. Citizens were trapped in a cycle of drug abuse, bureaucratic corruption, and social disorder. Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA) data revealed 3.7 million drug users nationwide, with over 92 percent of communities in the National Capital Region (NCR) infiltrated by drug networks. The narcotics epidemic corroded the judicial system, rendering conventional anti-drug policies ineffective as drug-related crimes proliferated. In late 2014, a drug-related corruption scandal erupted when New Bilibid Prison in NCR was exposed for housing luxury amenities for incarcerated drug lords. This scandal thrust drug crime issues back into public consciousness, becoming a central topic in the 2016 presidential election. Duterte, thanks to his track record of restoring order in Davao City and his uncompromising stance on drug governance, won widespread public support and became the first president from the southern Philippines.

Upon taking office, Duterte launched a nationwide anti-drug campaign modeled after his governance experience in Davao, simultaneously implementing decisive crackdowns on drug dealers, drug lords and their protectors, while advancing crop substitution programs, anti-drug education, and building rehabilitation centers. By May 31, 2022, PDEA had executed over 239,000 operations, dismantled 1,075 drug production and distribution facilities, seized narcotics worth 76.01 billion pesos ($1.33 billion), neutralized 6,235 individuals, arrested 331,000 suspects, and rescued 4,230 drug-involved minors, reducing NCR's drug-affected communities to 54 percent. Drug-fueled corruption was also significantly curtailed, with 1,049 government officials dismissed from service, including Justice Secretary Leila De Lima, who was imprisoned on charges of accepting bribes from drug syndicate.

The anti-drug campaign effectively improved Philippine social order and security, garnering widespread public support. During Duterte's administration, total crime incidents decreased by 63 percent compared to the previous government, with multiple polling organizations indicating that Duterte left office as the most popular president in Philippine history. His anti-drug initiative emerged as a successful governance model grounded in local conditions and social realities, demonstrating precise policy implementation with remarkable results that deeply resonated with the public. Public approval of Duterte's governance translated into trust for his family, as evidenced by his daughter Sara Duterte's election as vice-president in 2022 with 32.2 million votes – the highest vote count for any official in Philippine electoral history.

Long-arm jurisdiction

Since the anti-drug campaign began, opposition voices have persisted within the Philippines, while certain international media outlets and NGOs seized the opportunity to condemn Duterte's approach as "lacking due process" and "violating humanitarian principles" in dealing with drug traffickers. Philippine media selectively ignored the Duterte administration's comprehensive anti-drug measures, reducing the campaign to a "massacre of the poor." On July 24, 2016, the Philippine Daily Inquirer featured a front-page headline with a photograph of a wife cradling her executed drug dealer husband. Rappler, an online news website, also produced special reports on the families of neutralized drug dealers, focusing on the economic impact of the policy on these households. Simultaneously, numerous international NGOs and Western mainstream media cited Philippine media reports to condemn the Duterte administration, demanding an end to "human rights violations", collectively generating international pressure against Duterte. In response to these coordinated smear campaigns, the Philippine government promptly launched investigations. Findings revealed that Rappler, a self-proclaimed "independent media," had exploited legal loopholes since 2015 to circumvent regulations, receiving long-term funding from multiple foreign foundations totaling over $4 million. In 2021, the Nobel Committee awarded the Peace Prize to Rappler founder Maria Ressa, praising her "contributions to press freedom in the Philippines" – effectively endorsing her persistent negative coverage of the anti-drug campaign.

Following this public opinion pressure, the ICC gradually transformed condemnation into concrete judicial action against Duterte. On April 27, 2017, Philippine lawyer Jude Sabio submitted a 77-page report to the ICC, requesting prosecution of Duterte for crimes against humanity, prompting the ICC to launch a preliminary investigation in February 2018. The Duterte administration strongly resisted these proceedings and formally announced the Philippines' withdrawal from the ICC on March 14, 2018. Later Sabio made a public declaration in January 2020 that the report was fabricated under instructions from opposition Liberal Party members including De Lima. He subsequently requested to withdraw the complaint, yet the ICC insisted that submitted documents could not be retracted and proceeded to commence on a formal investigation on July 15, 2021.

International forces persistently stigmatized Duterte and his anti-drug campaign, manufacturing global public opinion pressure to justify interference in a sovereign nation's internal affairs, ultimately facilitating Duterte's arrest. As a matter of fact, the ICC is not a United Nations body but an intergovernmental organization operating under the Rome Statute, which mandates strict adherence to the principle of complementarity rather than intervening in sovereign states' domestic affairs under the pretext of universal values. Ironically, as recently as early 2024, President Marcos Jr. himself emphasized that the ICC held no jurisdiction in the Philippines. Subsequently, his position gradually weakened until this recent betrayal of his previous stance, effectively greenlighting extraterritorial jurisdiction. Numerous analysts point out that Marcos Jr's dramatic reversal stems primarily from domestic political calculations.

Electoral gambit

The Marcos family hails from Ilocos Norte in northern Philippines, where patriarch Ferdinand Marcos Sr. ruled for 22 consecutive years (1965-1986) before being overthrown by the People Power Revolution and dying in exile in Hawaii. Philippine society remained deeply divided over Marcos' legacy, with intense controversy preventing his remains from returning to Manila. In November 2016, Duterte ordered Marcos Sr.'s remains transferred to the Cemetery of the Heroes' (Libingan ng mga Bayani), though clarifying this does not equate to Marcos being a "hero in the true sense of the word" – demonstrating Duterte's desire for political healing and unity in nation-building. This burial resolution cleared a significant public opinion obstacle for the Marcos family's political resurgence. In 2022, Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte formed an electoral alliance that overwhelmingly defeated the opposition Liberal Party associated with the late President Aquino III. During the campaign and early administration, Marcos Jr. largely embraced Duterte's political legacy. However, as time progressed, tensions emerged between the two families due to divergent governance approaches and foreign policy orientations.

Since early 2023, Philippine politics has increasingly polarized into two camps: the Marcos-Romualdez faction controlling executive and legislative powers, versus the Duterte family and former president Arroyo's alliance, whose primary strength lies in public popularity and a few steadfast Senate allies. The Marcos camp leveraged its authority to orchestrate De Lima's acquittal through witness retractions and insufficient evidence claims, cementing an alliance with anti-Duterte political forces. Subsequently, using their House majority, the Marcos faction launched repeated offensives: demoting Arroyo from senior deputy speaker to ordinary representative, slashing budgets for Davao region and the vice-president's office, and persecuting numerous Duterte supporters. Simultaneously, Marcos Jr's son Sandro was appointed to a senior House position, while his cousin Romualdez is rumored to be positioning for a 2028 presidential run. Evidently, Marcos has been strategically maneuvering since taking office to eradicate Duterte's political legacy while perpetuating his own family's influence. Nevertheless, the Duterte family maintains high nationwide popularity, with growing domestic calls for Sara Duterte to run for president in 2028.

The May 2025 midterm election, which will determine half the Senate seats, all House representatives, and local government positions, represent a crucial test for Marcos Jr's first half-term. Since late 2024, Philippine political dynamics have rapidly evolved around this electoral contest. In February 2025, the House of Representatives passed impeachment complaint against Sara Duterte, only to be rejected by the Senate – highlighting the Senate's pivotal role in balancing Philippine political power. In this election, Duterte's senatorial allies including Imee Marcos, Christopher "Bong" Go, and Ronald dela Rosa all seek reelection. Marcos' cooperation with the ICC at this juncture serves dual purposes: undermining the Duterte family's political foundation while sending a warning signal to opposition candidates, ultimately aiming to secure midterm electoral victory and fulfill his political ambitions.

Ultimate judge

While Duterte, Marcos, and the international community all acknowledge the Philippines' severe drug crisis and the necessity of anti-drug efforts, they fundamentally disagree on methodologies and evaluation standards. International judicial mechanisms should neither supersede national sovereignty nor should individual political interests suppress the people's will. Following these events, pro-Duterte demonstrations erupted across the Philippines, with supporters also gathering outside The Hague Penitentiary Institution. When launching his anti-drug campaign, Duterte declared he was "willing to burn in hell" for the Filipino people. The ultimate judgment on the merits and demerits of the anti-drug campaign should be rightfully made by the Philippine people themselves.

The author is a scholar at Peking University.

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