Around 5 percent growth realistic target to be met

China pegged the economic growth target for 2025 at around 5 percent.

The long-term goal for 2035 is to achieve the per capita GDP of a moderately developed country, which requires doubling the nation's total GDP from its 2020 level. This implies that between 2026 and 2035, China's average annual GDP growth rate must reach around 4.5 percent. Given changes in population dynamics and economic scale, experts estimate that China's potential growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30) will be between 4.5 and 5 percent. Therefore, setting an around 5 percent growth target ensures a smooth transition between two consecutive five-year plans.

Second, the target highlights China's determination to tackle challenges head-on. On the basis of the 5 percent GDP growth rate in 2024, several challenges are anticipated for 2025. Externally, China will likely face greater pressure due to political shifts in the United States and Europe, leading to stronger external headwinds. Internally, China's total population is falling while the aging of the population is accelerating, increasing domestic economic challenges.

The around 5 percent growth target therefore reflects the central leadership's resolve to overcome difficulties and achieve high-quality development. Which will require more proactive economic policies. The fiscal deficit ratio is pegged at around 4 percent, 1 percentage point higher than last year. The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 5.66 trillion yuan ($779.91 billion), 1.6 trillion yuan more than last year, while general public expenditure is projected to increase to 29.7 trillion yuan, up by 1.2 trillion yuan, and the issuance of ultra-long-term government bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan, up by 30 billion yuan. These measures will ensure adequate financial support for general public expenditure.

Moreover, the Government Work Report says the government will optimize and innovate structural monetary policy tools, promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate and stock markets, and increase support for technological innovation, green development, consumption, and private and small businesses, laying a solid foundation for achieving the around 5 percent growth target.

21ST CENTURY BUSINESS HERALD