Japan's births hit record low in 2024

The number of children born in Japan in 2024, including those of foreign nationals, declined by 5 percent from the previous year to 720,988, setting a record low for the ninth consecutive year.

If counting only Japanese nationals, the figure is likely to have fallen below 700,000, according to Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, which released demographic statistics on Thursday.

This marks the lowest number of births since comparable records began in 1899. The figure dropped by approximately 282,000, or 28 percent, from 1,003,000 births in 2014.

The preliminary figures released this time include foreign nationals residing in Japan. The number of births among Japanese nationals alone and the total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman has over her lifetime — are usually announced each June.

According to population projections released in April 2023 by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, or IPSS, the number of births, including those of foreign nationals, was expected to decline to the 720,000 range by 2039. However, the birthrate is falling 15 years ahead of government expectations.

The Japanese government sees the years leading up to the 2030s as the "last chance" to reverse the declining birthrate. With the generation born in the 1990s now reaching prime childbearing age, curbing the decline before the 2030s is considered critical. Yet, there are no indications that the trend is stabilizing.

Japan's population decline is accelerating. The number of deaths rose by 1.8 percent to 1,618,684, while the natural decrease — the gap between births and deaths — hit a record-high 897,696, widening by 65,824 from 2023, according to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.

Marriages increased by 2.2 percent to 499,999 couples, marking the first rise in two years. However, the total remained below 500,000 for the second consecutive year. With Japan's low rate of births outside marriage, the declining number of marriages is expected to significantly impact future birth rates.

As the birthrate continues to decline and the population ages, the proportion of individuals aged 65 and older is increasing. This demographic shift is expected to further raise the burden of social insurance premiums on the working-age population.

Estimates by the Mitsubishi Research Institute suggest that total social security benefit expenditures, including healthcare, nursing care, pensions, and child-rearing support, will rise to 169 trillion yen ($1.13 trillion) in 2040, a 28 percent increase from 2020. In particular, medical and nursing care benefit expenditures are projected to grow significantly, reaching 83 trillion yen — 1.5 times the amount in 2020.

jiangxueqing@chinadaily.com.cn