Crisis aggravator

China and the EU should join hands to provide leadership on climate governance in the face of Trump administration's abrogation of responsibility

With Donald Trump starting his second term as president of the United States, there are widespread concerns about global cooperation to reduce fossil fuel use. Considering his actions on climate change during his first term and so many "bad climate promises" he has made, he will likely continue to do many retrograde things on climate issues in the next four years.

First, due to the withdrawal of the US, the already fragile effectiveness of the Paris Agreement will be further weakened. At the same time, Trump has made it clear that he is unwilling to contribute to the United Nations Green Climate Fund. As the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change has clearly stated that developed countries should take the lead in reducing emissions and have the obligation to provide financial, technological and capacity-building support to developing countries, there is sufficient reason to worry that Trump will withdraw the US from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This will further undermine confidence in global climate governance, destroy the already fragile consensus and foundation, and plunge global climate governance into a greater trust deficit, funding deficit, governance deficit.

The future of global climate governance has become even bleaker.

Second, Trump will continue to give the green light to the extraction and use of fossil fuels in the US, and the development of clean energy in the country will remain sluggish. In the next four years, the US under Trump's leadership will significantly relax restrictions on fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas. Possible directions for relaxation include reducing emissions requirements for coal-fired power plants in operation, delaying retirement timelines, and relaxing the requirement for new coal-fired power plants to be equipped with carbon capture. Trump's energy and climate policy does not prioritize green and low-carbon transformation but emphasizes the security of low-cost US energy.

Last but not the least, Trump will hinder the smooth implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act. It is highly likely that Trump will use presidential executive orders to limit the effectiveness of the Act to some extent, thus achieving the purpose of suspending or delaying the implementation of certain content. Considering the Act is the core policy of the previous administration to promote the development of the clean energy industry, Trump's decision is bad news for both the US and the world.

Considering these grim realities, as the foremost players in addressing the climate crisis, the significance of cooperation between China and the European Union is self-evident. First, despite years of discussions on how to reduce emissions, global greenhouse gas emissions, far from reaching a peak, continue to rise. Simultaneously, global temperatures are also significantly increasing. The progress of global climate governance concerns everyone who cares about the future of humanity. According to the latest data of World Meteorological Organization in 2024, the global average temperature was 1.5 C higher than the temperature level between 1850 and 1900 before industrialization, indicating that the rate of temperature rise due to industrialization is faster than climate scientists believed.

Second, the international community's future carbon budget will soon be depleted. According to the latest data of global carbon budget, whether it is to control the global temperature rise since industrialization below 1.5 C or below 2 C, the future carbon budget is limited and will be depleted soon. In the future, more global efforts are needed to form a joint force to address climate issues in order to ensure that the temperature rise is below 2 C.

Third, China and Europe are the foremost forces driving the global green transition, and their support for this transition is more sustained and steadfast. When considering the carbon budget and emissions, temperature rise and climate crisis, the fact that Trump's re-election as the US president has made the US an unreliable force in global climate governance, and therefore, the cooperation between China and the European Union naturally holds absolute importance and necessity.

In response to the outcome of the US presidential election on Nov 6, 2024, the European Commission emphasized that the EU has a very clear and robust climate policy and target and has adopted significant legislative measures and other policies to ensure the realization of its 2050 climate goal. In this regard, China, which is also firmly committed to achieving its 2060 dual carbon goals, will have many opportunities for collaboration and co-creation with the EU.

First, China and Europe have ample room for collaboration in the development of clean technology. As Adair Turner, former chairman of the United Kingdom Climate Change Committee, pointed out during his visit to China at the end of 2024: Given the urgency of the global response to climate change, the importance of China-Europe relations is self-evident. Europe should welcome the low-carbon advantages brought by the development and cost reduction of clean technology in China, and accept clean technology investments from Chinese enterprises in Europe. China, the UK and rest of Europe should seek win-win international trade solutions in their multifaceted relationships.

Second, as the EU is set to implement the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), cooperation between China and the EU in greening high-carbon industries is particularly crucial. If Chinese and European enterprises can enhance communication and collaboration in related industrial chains and high-carbon sectors, particularly in industries where both parties have close ties, especially in areas such as information disclosure, carbon accounting, and the formulation of transformation plans, it will benefit both parties. Whether addressing the climate crisis or dealing with the CBAM, it is a systematic endeavor. Therefore, not only should enterprises from both sides participate, but they should also encourage relevant financial institutions to strengthen dialogue and cooperation in carbon accounting, information disclosure, and the formulation of transformation plans, especially in terms of carbon credit certification methodologies and supervision mechanisms.

Finally, China-EU climate cooperation can be extended to third parties, driving positive forces across a wider scope and playing a greater role in addressing the climate crisis. For instance, there is ample room for cooperation between China and the EU in formulating sustainable financial standards. Currently, there are some shared classification catalogs, and in the future, it may expand to multilateral areas to promote exchanges, cooperation, and co-creation in this field.

The author is a research assistant at the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.