Push back against the thin end of wedge

Donald Trump will return to the White House in late January. Amid global political and economic turmoil, China-Vietnam relations are facing challenges and have come to a critical juncture. The two countries need to recalibrate the mode of their cooperation to stabilize bilateral relations and seek further development.

On Dec 24, Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade decided to impose an anti-dumping levy of 97 percent for five years on wind power equipment originating from China, starting from the beginning of January 2025. The measures will apply on almost all Chinese companies, with an exception for Jiangsu Zhenjiang New Energy Equipment Co Ltd as it was not found to have any dumping activity during the investigation period.

Vietnam's latest measure may seem to the outside to be catering to the policy direction of the new US government, which will inevitably add some uncertainty to the stable development of China-Vietnam economic and trade relations. China and Vietnam have made it clear that they will promote the role of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area to promote the export of key goods of one country to the other. But Vietnam's recent move is like tearing down bridges.

China is one of Vietnam's largest trading partners. In 2023, the bilateral trade volume reached $229.8 billion. Vietnam's imposition of high anti-dumping duties on China's wind towers may trigger a chain reaction, putting China-Vietnam economic and trade relations into tensions and damaging long-term cooperation between the two sides. It will pose challenges to both countries in terms of trade complementarity and industrial coordination, and will do harm to the joint effort of building convenient business operation.

At the diplomatic and strategic level, Trump had close relations with Vietnam in his first term and visited Vietnam twice when in office. And in his second term, Trump may once again use Vietnam as a counterbalance to China's influence in Southeast Asia.

Under such circumstances, Vietnam may face growing pressure to take sides in major-country competition, which may affect the political mutual trust and strategic cooperation between China and Vietnam, increase the difficulty of bilateral coordination and cooperation in handling regional affairs, and interfere with the building of a China-Vietnam community with a shared future.

In the field of security, the US has been trying to establish a forward military presence in Vietnam. Trump is likely to step up efforts in this regard after taking office, which will directly threaten China's national security, complicate the security situation in the South China Sea and other areas, and pose challenges to China and Vietnam's efforts to strengthen maritime security cooperation and maintain regional peace and stability through the "3+3" strategic dialogue mechanism, which may result in destabilizing factors such as a regional arms race.

Amid profound changes, how to rise to the challenges and continue to write a new chapter of China-Vietnam relations has become an important topic of common concern for the two countries.

In terms of the anti-dumping duties imposed by Vietnam on Chinese wind power equipment, it is imperative for China to actively negotiate with the Vietnamese side. For example, through detailed market research data, the positive role that Chinese wind towers and related products have played in the Vietnamese market can be shown, such as helping Vietnam's wind power industry to increase the installed capacity, reduce power generation costs and optimize the country's energy structure.

In addition, the two sides can explore cooperation opportunities in emerging areas and Vietnam can learn from China's rich experience and successful models in the field of cross-border e-commerce.

China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports have shown rapid growth in recent years, by virtue of its advantages in sound e-commerce platforms, efficient logistics system and diversified payment means. China and Vietnam can make use of this experience to jointly build cross-border e-commerce platforms, build more convenient trade channels for small and medium-sized enterprises from both sides, reduce trade barriers and costs, and reduce the impact of trade frictions.

At the same time, the two countries can further beef up cooperation in the construction of infrastructure and industrial parks. In terms of the construction of transport infrastructure, the two countries should enhance connectivity and provide more convenient logistics conditions for trade. In the construction of industrial parks, through reasonable planning of their industrial layout, the two countries should realize more effective docking of upstream and downstream industries to promote deep integration of bilateral trade and two-way investment, so as to enhance the collaborative efficiency and value-added creation ability of both sides in all links of the industrial chains.

The two countries can jointly promote industrial upgrading and trade and investment facilitation, and carry out projects to support emerging industries. In terms of infrastructure construction, they should jointly advance cross-border transportation, energy and other projects to enhance connectivity. In cultural and people-to-people exchanges, they should actively organize cultural, educational and tourism activities to promote exchanges between the two countries.

The two sides should enhance candid exchanges on major issues of mutual concern and the regional situation. Through various types of diplomacy such as head-of-state diplomacy, China and Vietnam can enhance mutual trust, dispel misunderstandings and jointly create a sound political environment.

In the field of security, China and Vietnam should deepen multifaceted cooperation to cope with complex regional and global situations. In terms of maritime security, China and Vietnam need to improve the "3+3" strategic dialogue mechanism, and improve joint law enforcement actions.

The two sides can also hold joint military exercises, promote exchanges and cooperation between their military academies. In the meantime, the two countries can advocate the establishment of a better security dialogue and cooperation mechanism, strengthen policy coordination in regional platforms, and jointly rise to the regional security challenges.

The author is vice-dean of and a lecturer at the School of Political Party Diplomacy at Beijing International Studies University. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.