Uncertainty clouds conclusion to conflict

The Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022 and both sides remain entrenched in battle with no peace in sight, with some observers closely watching whether the incoming administration of US President-elect Donald Trump will bring changes to the situation in 2025.

In Russia's Tatarstan, which hosted the 2024 BRICS Kazan Summit in October, Ukrainian forces used unmanned aerial vehicles to attack residential buildings on Dec 21, leading to the temporary closure of several airports.

The head of Tatarstan, Rustam Minnikhanov, reported that eight drones attacked Kazan, over 1,000 kilometers away from the Ukrainian border. Six hit residential buildings, one struck an industrial facility and one was shot down over a river. The attacks caused fires and destroyed buildings, with no fatalities or injuries reported.

"Whoever tries to destroy something in Russia, no matter how hard they try, will face much greater destruction in their own country and will regret their actions here," President Vladimir Putin vowed.

Although Kyiv has not commented on the strike, Russian experts suggested that the attack on Kazan could escalate tensions between Ukraine and the Trump administration.

"Broadly, the attack is an attempt to change the logic of the negotiation process proposed by Trump," said Ivan Loshkarev, an associate professor of political theory at MGIMO University.

Trump repeatedly said during campaigning that he planned to settle the conflict in Ukraine in just one day. Many considered that a "clear "victory for Russia and a "death sentence" for Ukraine if Trump achieved his goal. In an interview with Time magazine published on Dec 12, Trump also criticized Ukraine's use of US-supplied missiles deep into Russian territory, saying "We are just escalating this war and making it worse."

At his annual end-of-year news conference on Dec 19, Putin said he was ready for talks with the US president-elect at "any time". He also said his troops held the upper hand across the battlefield.

Loshkarev stated that Ukraine will continue coordinating with the departing US administration and is frantically trying to create obstacles for the potential negotiation process after Trump takes office on Jan 20.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has threatened further attacks on military installations in Russia.

"We will definitely continue to strike Russian military targets — with drones and missiles, increasingly with Ukrainian-made ones — specifically targeting military bases and Russian military infrastructure used in this terror against our people," he said in his evening video address from Kyiv on Dec 21.

In mid-November, US President Joe Biden approved Ukraine's use of its Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, against targets inside Russia. This was soon followed by Britain's approval for similar use of its Storm Shadow missiles.