Another string to its bow

CO2 removal has the potential to contribute to and accelerate the delivery of China's carbon neutrality goal

The world needs to complement rapid and deep emissions cuts with pulling carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere at a large scale to keep the Paris Agreement's global warming target alive. In this context, novel carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods have increasingly gained the attention of policymakers and investors because of their high carbon storage durability. China can build on existing knowledge to expand its CDR portfolio.

CDR options vary, ranging from conventional approaches such as afforestation and reforestation to some novel ones such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), biochar, enhanced weathering and marine CDR. For example, BECCS involves the sequestration of atmospheric carbon by biomass during its growth and the capture and geological storage of carbon dioxide emitted upon conversion of this biomass to energy. Some BECCS applications are at present commercialized in bioethanol production, biomass and coal co-firing plants, pulp and paper mills, cement plants, and steel blast furnaces. DACCS refers to chemical processes to capture ambient carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it underground. The earliest operational DACCS plants were developed in Switzerland and Iceland by Climeworks.

Notable progress is being made to advance research, development and demonstration, and regulations in a number of jurisdictions, including the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom, and through voluntary markets. The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on the governments to support CDR development while highlighting, "these technologies are not a silver bullet and they cannot be a substitute for drastic emissions cuts or an excuse to delay fossil fuel phase-out". In addition, Mission Innovation — an intergovernmental initiative catalyzing collaboration action for technology and innovation with the participation of more than 24 countries including China — has created a CDR mission that focuses on catalyzing novel CDR industries.

CDR is not new to China. The country launched national reforestation and afforestation programs decades ago to address other environmental challenges such as desertification, which were later repurposed as a key climate action. Several policies to incentivize China's forestry sector to contribute to climate action have also been introduced, including bringing it into China's Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, as well as the country's voluntary carbon emissions trading system.

For China to achieve its 2060 carbon neutrality goal, experts argue that significant volumes of CDR will be needed. The mitigation cost of relying on conventional CDR could be much higher than that of a diversified portfolio of CDR options. China faces mounting international pressure to take more ambitious climate action and a tough domestic challenge in accelerating the green transition while ensuring development and energy security objectives. To meet this challenge, policymakers may consider expanding the CDR portfolio to go beyond conventional measures and carefully investigate the social, economic, technical and sustainability implications associated with all different options.

Although considerable research has been dedicated to novel CDR measures in China, policy discussion around novel CDR technologies and their role in China's decarbonization pathways has been slow. Earlier this year, the government decided to join the CDR mission under Mission Innovation, which could help catalyze meaningful domestic policy discussions.

All CDR measures carry both risks and benefits, particularly if deployed at scale, requiring a holistic approach to manage the trade-offs.

First, the underestimation of CDR feasibility constraints and overly optimistic assumptions of their potential deployment risks dampen necessary ambition on emissions reductions and provide an excuse for the fossil fuel industry to delay its phase-out. Second, despite progress in advancing research and reducing cost, most novel CDR options, in particular DACCS, remain costly.

Third, most novel CDR techniques are still at a nascent stage of their development. It is uncertain whether they can be deployed at the expected levels and pace. Over-reliance on these technologies may put the world at the risks of greater and longer climate impacts. Near-term emissions cuts must be prioritized and hard-to-abate sectors need to be clearly defined.

Fourth, sustainability constraints pose a significant challenge. For instance, BECCS deployment depends on the availability of sustainable biomass feedstock, which raises concerns over competition for agricultural land and water resources. Large-scale DACCS deployment may create significant demand for renewable energy, land and water. To evaluate the scalability of these technologies in China, it will be necessary to conduct comprehensive assessments for large-scale deployment by considering sustainability factors, including energy, land, water and raw materials.

Last, there is a lack of a robust measurement, reporting and verification system.

Despite the challenges, China has advantages by building on its knowledge in conventional CDR measures and the increased research and innovation in this space. Moreover, there are several opportunities that China can seize to expand its CDR portfolio.

As the country is designing its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) and exploring new quality productive forces relying on scientific and technological innovation, it may be desirable to integrate CDR into green transition strategies and national research plans for low-carbon technologies, and to make sure that CDR development will not undermine emissions reduction efforts.

China is also actively expanding the compliance market and re-opening the voluntary market, offering an opportunity to set robust rules and regulations related to CDR that are aligned with international ones, in particular those discussed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change relating to the market mechanism and the methodology report on CDR and CCUS being developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

It is urgent that China carefully consider expanding its CDR portfolio while ensuring that its emissions reduction efforts are not undermined.

Zheng Qi is a senior policy advisor at the Secretariat International Support Office for the CCICED.Pang Xiao is a senior engineer at the CCICED Secretariat. The authors contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.