US Fed plans to gradually lower rates going forward: minutes

WASHINGTON -- US Federal Reserve officials expressed confidence that inflation is easing, and are expected to gradually lower interest rates going forward, according to minutes from the Nov 6-7 meeting released Tuesday.

"Participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 percent and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time," the minutes showed.

"Many participants observed that uncertainties concerning the level of the neutral rate of interest complicated the assessment of the degree of restrictiveness of monetary policy and, in their view, made it appropriate to reduce policy restraint gradually," the minutes continued.

The Fed's risk assessment suggests that while downside risks to economic activity and employment have diminished somewhat, upside risks to inflation remain a concern. These risks include potential disruptions in global supply chains, stronger-than-expected consumption, and persistent shelter price increases.

The Fed's policymaking committee also acknowledged risks related to geopolitical tensions, tightening financial conditions, and worsening financing conditions, which could affect global growth and US economic stability.

The minutes did not address potential policy under the next administration, but some economists raised concerns that President-elect Donald Trump's proposed additional tariffs could drive up inflation, potentially complicating the Fed's path of rate cuts.

At the last policy meeting, the US Fed slashed the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5 percent to 4.75 percent amid cooling inflation and a weakening labor market, marking the second rate cut in this easing cycle.

The Fed will hold its final monetary policy meeting of the year on Dec 17-18 The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group's FedWatch Tool, which acts as a barometer for the market's expectation of the Fed funds target rate, shows that the market currently expects a 63 percent probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting.