Canadian political experts weigh impact of US election

Political observers in Canada say that whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump is elected US president, either could put pressure on Canada in areas such as defense, security and trade.

Ron Stagg, a Canadian political and social historian specializing in Canada-US relations at Toronto Metropolitan University, told China Daily: "This election is one of the most consequential in modern history, with implications on both sides of the border."

He said former US president Donald Trump is an atypical candidate, one who could upend trade agreements and the global order.

For Canada, Trump's 'America First' rhetoric could spell trouble for industries heavily reliant on US markets," he said.

"If Trump wins, Canada's trade relationship with the US may face its most significant test yet. Trump's promise of a 10 percent tariff on all imports could damage Canada's largest export market," Stagg said.

Stagg said that key sectors, including the dairy, lumber and auto industries, which has grown interdependent with the US market. Those industries could be among the first casualties in a trade war scenario.

"Trump doesn't care about the economic fallout; he prioritizes domestic optics over global relationships," Stagg said. "His approach may further isolate the US, pushing Canada to reconsider its reliance on its southern neighbor and pursue greater trade ties with Asia and Europe."

Despite efforts to diversify its trade, Canada remains tethered to the US, Stagg said. He noted that Canada has started lobbying state governments to resist potential US policies that could harm bilateral trade, especially with key northern states.

However, he doubted its effectiveness, citing Trump's indifference to political opposition. "Canada has to tread carefully and try to leverage these regional relationships, but it's an uphill battle if Trump is elected," he said.

Meanwhile, if Harris is elected, the current challenges facing the US-Canada border will likely continue without significant changes.

As US policies grow more restrictive, Stagg predicts an increase in American immigrants, including middle-class citizens disillusioned by Trump's policies.

"Canada may see an influx of asylum seekers and others seeking stability and a friendlier political climate," Stagg said.

"This could strain Canada's resources," he said, particularly as Trump's immigration stance grows increasingly uncompromising. Canada may face new demands to bolster border security and manage a larger number of asylum claims.

The US election could further embolden right-wing sentiments within Canada. According to Stagg, the right in Canada already takes cues from divisive politics south of the border, a trend that may escalate if Trump returns to office.

"There's a real danger of polarization spilling over," Stagg said. He noted that Canada remains less divided than the US, but Trump's rhetoric could encourage Canadian politicians to stoke similar tensions.

Adam Chapnick, a scholar in Canadian defense studies, professor at the Royal Military College of Canada, told China Daily, "Firstly, public opinion polls in Canada suggest that Canadians would much prefer a Harris victory. It follows that perceptions of the US are likely to improve if she wins and worsen if Trump is victorious."

According to Department of National Defence figures, the federal government will spend $41 billion on the military for the 2024-25 fiscal year.

Defense spending accounts for approximately 7 percent of the total federal budget, but 1.39 percent of the GDP.

"Although both Harris and Trump are likely to continue to pressure Canada to increase defense spending, Harris is likely to continue President Biden's approach of a combination of carrots and sticks, while Trump is more likely to use sticks exclusively," Chapnick said.

"Harris is also more likely to understand security as best achieved through a combination of American power and an effective global governance regime. Trump appears to be less inclined toward global governance," he added.

Under a Trump presidency, Canada would therefore have to work that much harder to preserve some of the institutions of global governance that have served its interests well since the Second World War, Chapnick said.

Cross-border security is another area that could change, especially in immigration policy. "Under Trump, should he pursue a policy of mass deportations, there is a risk of an increase in refugee claimants at the Canadian border, which could be both controversial and problematic," Chapnick noted.

Kim Richard Nossal, professor emeritus at Queen's University, noted that compared with a Trump administration, a Harris presidency would be a "saner and more predictable" scenario, albeit not without its own pressures.

Nossal anticipates that, while Harris would approach allies more diplomatically, her administration would also adopt protectionist measures, potentially harming Canadian trade.

Nossal noted Canada's lack of flexibility in responding independently.

"Because of Canada's extreme economic dependence on the US, the Canadian government will have no alternative. It will surely adjust its policies to meet whatever demands the United States makes on trade and defense," he said, underscoring Canada's economic vulnerability.

Nossal also said that getting more defense contributions from Canada has bipartisan support in the US.

Noting that Canada has learned lessons from past US elections and is prepared for potential shifts, Chapnick said: "The Canadian government has rightly begun planning for the outcome of either a Harris or a Trump victory."

That preparation includes building relationships with key members of Congress, particularly those from states with shared economic interests.

Chapnick praised Ottawa's preparations, adding that "the current government has generally handled its relationship with the United States very well".

Ultimately, Nossal predicts that Canada will have to adapt its policies in response to the election's outcome. "We will see significant pressure on Canada beginning in 2025 regardless of who wins," he said.

gaoyang@chinadailyusa.com