Graded policy steps boosting foreign investor confidence

BEIJING — Foreign investors are becoming increasingly bullish on the Chinese market, bolstered by the country's recent incremental policies aimed at vitalizing growth momentum.

UBS Investment Bank has raised its China 2024 growth forecast to 4.8 percent from 4.6 percent, while Goldman Sachs has lifted China's GDP growth prediction this year from 4.7 percent to 4.9 percent.

The uplift is mostly due to China's third-quarter year-on-year GDP growth of 4.6 percent, slightly above market expectations of 4.4 percent, and the series of support policies the government recently launched, said UBS economist Wang Tao.

Economists at Goldman Sachs noted that the latest round of China's incremental policies clearly indicates that policymakers have made a turn on cyclical policy management and increased their focus on the economy.

So far this year, multiple international institutions, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, have raised their forecast for China's economic growth for 2024.

In the face of mounting challenges at home and abroad, China's GDP grew 4.8 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year. The country has set a target of economic growth at around 5 percent for this year.

To beef up the economy in response to looming challenges, Chinese authorities have unveiled a broader than expected policy package since late September, which focused on enhancing countercyclical adjustments, expanding effective domestic demand, supporting business operations, promoting the recovery of the property market, and invigorating capital markets.

Aside from these pro-growth policies, Chinese policymakers have continued to improve investment facilitation, create a favorable investment environment, promote high-level financial opening-up to the outside world, and actively support foreign investors in participating in the Chinese capital market.

Alan Ho, co-senior country officer for China at JP Morgan, said that the pace of China's financial market opening-up had accelerated in recent years.

For example, foreign ownership restrictions in local securities, funds and futures companies have been lifted and financial markets' connectivity mechanisms have been maturing more quickly than expected, which have brought broader development opportunities to foreign financial institutions, Ho said.

Data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that foreign holdings of domestic renminbi bonds have so far exceeded $640 billion, reaching a historic high.

Net foreign investment in domestic bonds surpassed $80 billion in the first three quarters, while foreign investment in Chinese equities saw notable improvement.

Foreign central banks and commercial banks are the biggest investors in domestic renminbi bonds, as they allocate a higher proportion of investment in medium and long-term bonds such as treasury bonds and policy bank bonds, according to the foreign exchange regulator.

The growing foreign holdings have reflected global investor confidence in the Chinese market. Currently, 24 global systemically important banks have a presence in China.

Industry insiders believe that foreign investors' active buy-in of Chinese assets shows their optimism in China's continuous opening-up measures and policy support in the capital market.

During the World Bank's 110th meeting of the Development Committee on Oct 25 in Washington DC, Vice-Minister of Finance Liao Min pledged that China will intensify countercyclical adjustments of fiscal policy.

A series of strong measures will be implemented to resolve local government debt risks, stabilize the real estate market, increase the income of key groups, enhance people's livelihoods, and drive equipment upgrades and trade-in deals for consumer goods, Liao said.

By leveraging government spending to stimulate social investment and consumption, effective demand will be increased, he said, noting that China is confident in achieving the annual economic growth target, and will continue to inject impetus into global economic growth.

Xinhua