Join hands for net-zero emissions

As extreme weather events become commonplace, it is clear that national commitments to rapid emissions reduction across the world don't go far enough, nor fast enough. To avert the worst impacts of climate change, we must raise our collective ambitions and accelerate global action. To combat the speed and power of extreme weather events, we need to take bold and decisive actions.

While the United States, Europe and the Middle East have historically contributed the most to the climate crisis, the challenge we face today demands an all-in, all-out response. As a major economic power, China also bears the responsibility of ramping up its efforts. Indeed, the steps China will take over the next decade will have a significant impact on a safe and stable future for our planet.

Compared to many other countries, China has already made significant strides in tackling emissions. Notably, in the run-up to the 2008 Beijing Olympics, China had made remarkable progress in combating air pollution, laying the groundwork for its low-carbon future.

Over the past decade, China has introduced new policies in response to the climate crisis. This evolution has led to the recent "electrify everything" strategy, which has not only contributed to emissions reduction but also brought clear health and well-being benefits to the people.

The current focus on rapidly scaling up renewable energy and nuclear power for electricity generation addresses a critical question: how can a growing economy, historically reliant on coal, successfully transition to low-carbon energy sources? By investing heavily on clean energy infrastructure, China is demonstrating a path forward for other developing nations facing similar energy transition issues.

Despite China's rapid progress, significant challenges remain to phasing out coal completely in a short period of time. And despite its efforts to reduce coal usage, China continues to build new coal-fired power stations due to concerns over energy security and grid stability. This ongoing reliance on coal challenges its transition to clean energy.

Similarly, while China is leading the world in renewable energy deployment, its capacity for generating energy from renewables is considerably higher than the actual contribution to the generated energy mix. This discrepancy is caused by the current system which lacks sufficient storage capacity.

This problem has been encountered and tackled before in different parts of the world and is therefore an area in which international collaboration has the potential to accelerate China's energy transition.

In the Climate Crisis Advisory Group's latest report, the impressive work that China has undertaken to move toward clean energy is apparent. However, it is also acknowledged that China's overarching pathway to net zero by 2060 could face challenges.

To move beyond coal and, we hope, not just meet but exceed commitments, international collaboration will be essential for China.

Using new data and modeling, the report by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) examines some future scenarios, each outlining a different trajectory for China's energy transition and how likely the country is to meet its United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change targets.

A worst-case scenario assumes high electricity demand, with energy consumption exceeding the China Electricity Council's forecasts — reaching 12 terawatt-hours annually by 2030. In this scenario, peak emissions are not achieved until post-2035, putting China's 2060 carbon neutrality target at significant risk.

Under more modest scenarios, where annual electricity grows at a rate of 3.07 percent per year — in line with CEC forecasts — China's carbon peak is still projected to slip to 2033.

Another scenario highlights positive results that can be achieved through strong international partnerships. In this model, annual electricity demand in China is still increasing at a rate of 5.69 percent; however, global collaboration to tackle issues with renewables intermittency shows that peak carbon emissions by 2030 would still be within reach.

These findings reveal a significant opportunity. China, unlike many other nations, has the chance to hit peak emissions earlier than anticipated, all while supporting its growing economy.

Let's be clear, China's journey to a clean energy future will be challenging, but the potential rewards in its transition are clear. No country can tackle climate change alone, but China's progress in transitioning away from coal will have a significant impact on global efforts to tackle the climate crisis.

Immediate global collaboration is crucial for deploying the necessary technologies that will help smooth China's shift from coal to renewables. With this support, China's leadership in the clean energy transition could become a global blueprint, offering solutions for others to follow.

The stakes are high, but with united efforts, the rewards could be defining for future generations around the world.

David King is chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group. Qi Ye is a member of CCAG and chair professor at Carbon Neutrality and Climate Change Thrust at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou). The authors contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.