Certitude of amity

Editor's note: The world has undergone many changes and shocks in recent years. Enhanced dialogue between scholars from China and overseas is needed to build mutual understanding on many problems the world faces. For this purpose, the China Watch Institute of China Daily and the National Institute for Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, jointly present this special column: The Global Strategy Dialogue, in which experts from China and abroad will offer insightful views, analysis and fresh perspectives on long-term strategic issues of global importance.

Honest dialogue and trust building between China and the West are imperative

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel was once criticized for her Russian policy, the essence of which was a sincere pursuit of good or at least well-regulated mutual relations, which would permanently protect peace and encourage comprehensive cooperation for mutual benefits, especially economic benefits. This political approach was based on trust and the belief that differences can be resolved peacefully through dialogue.

Were this aspiration and this strategy wrong from the point of view of today's developments in Europe and the world? Should we, therefore, conclude that honest dialogue and confidence building are disproportionately risky also in the case of relations with China?

The ongoing deepening of the West's distrust of China and its intentions is the most serious problem impacting relations between the West and China. Consequently, the dialogue is protocol and avoids seeking more serious alternatives to a safer world order, from reducing current security threats and tensions to reforming the United Nations and in particular its Security Council to be able to intervene with a community's authority for the benefit of world peace. In fact, we are in a race against time when, due to the return of obsolete geopolitics and the accumulation and concentration of security problems (at the moment, 52 armed conflicts are taking place in the world), it is time to establish a real dialogue between the main global actors (including the European Union) before it is too late. The particular problem is that, of course, you never know in advance when it will be too late.

Recently, it has been characteristic of Washington that an extremely critical attitude toward China is almost the only point of national consensus. It is interesting that there has been a programmatic merging of the Republican and Democratic dissent from two different directions.

The EU and NATO have followed the political consensus of the United States, the latter without reservations, the EU with modifications still allowed by the dependence of European security and the economy on the US on the one hand, but also on the Chinese market on the other. After the EU-China summit at the end of December 2023, EU Council President Charles Michel said that "the EU and China have a common interest in stable and constructive relations established on respect for the rule-based international order". Regarding the most neuralgic geopolitical point, the growing tensions across the Taiwan Strait and in the East China and South China seas, he added that "the EU opposes all unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion". Thus, the EU maintains a multifaceted relationship with China, according to which this country is "at the same time a partner, a competitor and a systemic rival".

In mid-July this year, the Communist Party of China Central Committee adopted a resolution on the comprehensive deepening of reforms. The People's Republic of China is to celebrate its 80th anniversary in 2029. A set of measures for "modernization" is supposed to accelerate internal development and external influence. Chinese President Xi Jinping remains true to the fundamental premise of his concept of China's New Governance. It is the idea of developing a unique model of governance that differs from Western democratic systems.

When designing policies, it insists on taking into account Chinese specificities. President Xi adjusts to the standards for elementary confidence of the business world, both inside and outside, to some extent. He highlights the importance of the rule of law. He acknowledges the necessity of innovation and technological progress for a sustainable economy. China's huge and evolving market is also its biggest lever in foreign policy and, to the extent that this is still sustainable for Chinese interests, adapts it to the needs of globalization. China's economy is already the second-largest in the world, but China is also striving to be a developed country. In short, the West is concerned about the growing strength of the Chinese economy. It is difficult to deal with, but impossible to ignore.

But the concerns of the West are increasingly concentrated on China's foreign and security policies.

The absence of a sincere dialogue and the deepening of distrust are the main obstacles to a sincere attempt by the West to reach understanding. The whole world is suffering as a result of the deterioration of relations between the West and China, although this is not immediately visible to the naked eye. The legal and political architecture of the modern international community has changed a lot since the end of World War II, it has become multipolar. However, the international institutions created after that war to prevent another global conflict have remained behind the times and are not fulfilling their roles sufficiently, in particular the United Nations and the Security Council.

Multilateralism is in crisis, which encourages influential countries to take arbitrary action. The main question of our time is whether the legal and political architecture of the world will successfully adapt to the profound changes taking place in a peaceful way. Never since World War II has this issue been as acute as now and never has it depended so much on relations between the West and China.

Trust and dialogue have their weaknesses and imperfections. Expectations can also produce disappointments. But what is the alternative? Distrust and the refusal of dialogue, so that there is no possibility of a solution at all? Open dialogue and cautious trust are needed. If it is sincere, there is a chance to strengthen trust. This would be a boon for the entire world.

The author is former prime minister and president of the Republic of Slovenia. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.