Scope for growth

By taking into account the policy priority of every member state, China aims to minimize risks and maximize the positive momentum of the group

The Ukraine crisis is a major factor affecting the security situation of Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries, bringing both severe challenges and historic opportunities for the group. The crisis underscores the negative repercussions of geopolitics, which threaten regional stability and development.

As SCO countries strive to enhance their status as major players on the regional landscape, the dynamics of major-country relations within the group have dramatically changed under the influence of the US-led West.

The SCO member states have complex relations with the West. Thus it is difficult for the SCO to display a united stance on the West. The SCO faces a worsening security situation. In recent years, the US' withdrawal from Afghanistan and the COVID-19 pandemic have significantly destabilized the region. The Ukraine crisis exacerbated the already fragile security situation, sparking conflicts and chaos in the region. In addition, nontraditional security issues such as energy and food security pose increasingly grave challenges to the region's stability.

The SCO also faces more complex problems for development. After the Ukraine crisis escalated, global and regional economic downturns have deteriorated. The unprecedented sanctions imposed by the US-led West against Russia have dealt a heavy blow to the Russian economy, and debilitated economic momentum in Central Asia and the Eurasian Economic Union. As a result, the regional logistics chains have been restructured and the environment for cooperation has worsened, presenting greater challenges to the economy of Central Asian countries.

The SCO needs to explore innovative decision-making processes and enhance collaboration efficiency while sticking to the principle of seeking consensus through consultations. It is also imperative for the group to tap its inner potential to more proactively "intervene in" regional conflicts in a constructive way under the premise of not interfering in other countries' internal affairs.

However, the Ukraine crisis has also offered an opportunity for the SCO to grow into a more influential organization.

First, a complete break between Russia and the West has increased Russia's reliance on the SCO, injecting new impetus for the group's development. Russia's "turning to the south and east "strategy is conducive to stimulating the cooperation within the SCO, especially in the economic field.

Second, as the Ukraine crisis has further fragmented the international landscape, the SCO's appeal to member states, particularly those from Central Asia, has greatly increased. Central Asian states now view the group as a preferred choice for multilateral cooperation. The SCO, which advocates and practices the Shanghai Spirit, transcends the Cold War mentality and Western imperialism, thus providing a new choice for regional countries.

Third, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has accelerated the expansion of the SCO. In 2023, the number of SCO countries grew from 18 to 26, with its influence extending from Central Asia and South Asia to the Middle East. This year, Belarus is expected to become a member state of the group, which will further increase its influence in regional and global affairs.

Against the backdrop of unprecedented changes, China should weigh up the opportunities and challenges facing the SCO to serve its diplomatic agenda. By taking into full account the policy priority of every SCO member state, China aims to minimize risks and maximize the positive momentum in the group, thus promoting the stable and sustainable development of the SCO.

First, China should follow the guideline of nonalignment, non-confrontation, and not targeting any third party, and proactively shape a new-type of international relations among SCO countries. It needs to properly handle relations with Russia, the United States, Muslim countries and other regional countries to promote peace and development in the Eurasian landscape.

Second, China should carry forward the Shanghai Spirit which features mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, consultation, respect for cultural diversity and pursuit of common development. It needs to push for more active participation of SCO countries in global governance with the view of building a more reasonable and just global order.

Third, it is key for China to implement the new security concept and build a community with shared security. In addition to cooperation in fighting extremism, separatism and terrorism, SCO members should strengthen collaboration in addressing nontraditional security challenges such as pandemics, climate change and ecological degradation, as well as energy, food and financial security.

Fourth, China needs to promote shared growth by boosting subregional and mini-multilateral cooperation, and creating a better development environments. It should activate the "energy club "of the SCO at a right time, and speed up trade and investment facilitation within the group. Efforts should also be made to step up cooperation in emerging areas such as 5G, smart cities, AI and e-commerce and seek new growth points.

Fifth, China should advance organizational reform within the group. On top of the group's reform agenda is to improve the rules for including new members, to unveil laws on cooperation in various fields within the group, and to clarify and increase the status and power of the secretary-general. The group also needs to innovate its consultation mechanism to transform the SCO from a meeting mechanism to a cooperation mechanism.

Deng Hao is a research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies. Li Tianyi is a research assistant at the China Institute of International Studies. The authors contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.