Stabilizing economy augurs well for global growth

Given China's better-than-expected economic performance, both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have raised their outlook for China's economic growth this year.

Morgan Stanley has revised China's 2024 real GDP growth forecast from 4.2 percent to 4.8 percent. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast to 5 percent from 4.8 percent.

Erik Berglof, chief economist of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, said: "China has been and will remain an important contributor to global growth in the foreseeable future. There is huge potential in the Chinese economy. China graduates around 1.5 million engineers every year. There's a lot of potential for technological development, more productivity and more economic growth."

But there are challenges as well, as the broader economy is still facing pressures, including uncertainty in the private sector and weakness in the property sector, which may continue to drag down growth in the short term, he said.

"What China needs to do is exactly what is being announced," he said. "China needs to create clear conditions and rules on how the private sector can contribute. It needs to focus on innovation, and try to bring new ideas and new ways of organizing things. All that is part of China's contribution to the global economy."

A meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee in April said the country will make moves to actively expand domestic demand, advance large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods and introduce more consumption scenarios and promote people-centered new urbanization. The meeting also called for research on policies and measures to reduce housing inventory and improve the quality of newly added housing.

Xiong Yuan, chief economist at Guosheng Securities, said the key meeting mainly focused on deepening reforms, implementing existing policies, boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the property sector, which will significantly increase market sentiment and stabilize expectations.

"China's proactive fiscal policy will stay front-loaded. The country will issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds as soon as possible, and speed up the issuance of local government special bonds," he said. "On the property front, potential moves may include central funding to support reducing housing inventory and further property policy easing in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai."

Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, said potential risks in the property sector will remain the major challenge facing China's broader economy. "We need to take more measures to tackle the property woes, including further proper easing in first-tier cities and some second-tier cities as well as more steps to ensure delivery of presold homes."