Will Israel-Iran conflict trigger another 'Middle East war'?

Unprecedented strikes call for urgent diplomacy

This strike was not unprovoked; it came in direct response to Israel bombing the Iranian embassy in Syria, an act that resulted in the deaths of two Iranian generals.

The escalation comes at a time when Israel finds itself increasingly isolated and defensive amid the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict. It appears that Israel aimed at diverting international scrutiny from Gaza and its domestic issues by targeting Iran, a tactic that has only served to heighten tensions. Iran, left with little choice, had to respond. Failing to do so would have been perceived as a sign of weakness, potentially stirring unrest among its populace. This was amply indicated as Iranians took to the streets, rallying in support of the strike, signaling a strong domestic approval of their government's actions.

This time, however, the dynamics were different. The international community has largely criticized Israel's aggressive maneuvers, providing Iran with a moment to align with global opinion against Israel. Yet, Iran was careful to avoid dragging the conflict into an uncontrollable escalation. Its calibrated response was strategic: while it showcased Iran's military capability, it also demonstrated restraint by informing the United States in advance, thus allowing Israel to prepare and avoid significant casualties.

The conflict underscores a crucial point about military engagement in today's interconnected world. The majority of Iran's missiles were intercepted, showcasing Israel's robust defense capabilities. However, Iran's deployment of advanced hypersonic missiles, which targeted a military base rather than civilian areas, was a clear demonstration of its precision and technological advancement. This was a calculated move to signal Iran's capability while avoiding unnecessary escalation.

Both countries have seemingly achieved their immediate objectives. Following the strike, US President Joe Biden reached out to Israel, urging restraint, which indicates a mutual interest in preventing further retaliation. Iran, through its statements at the United Nations, has made it clear that it stands ready to escalate if provoked again. However, this too seems more of a warning than a promise of inevitable conflict.

As it stands, the incident might look contained, but it is far from a resolution. The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict continues to fuel these regional fires. Iran's continued support for Palestine and international pressure on Israel are likely to persist, pressing for a significant shift in policy and approach by both the Israeli and US leaderships to address the root causes of the conflict.

In the broader context, most nations, particularly those in the Middle East, oppose an escalation of tension. Countries like Turkiye and various Arab states have openly called for restraint, understanding that a wider conflict would be detrimental to the entire region. Thus, the incident, while severe, is also a critical juncture for international diplomacy. It emphasizes the urgent need for a dialogue-focused approach to address not just the symptoms but the underlying issues plaguing the Middle East. Moving forward, the international community must harness this moment of heightened attention to advocate for peace and stability in the region.

Li Weijian, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies