Demographic challenge

In light of changing global population structure, international order, relations and geopolitics will be reshaped to varying degrees

Population has always played a major role in a country's rise and fall. The current change in global demographics may well effect changes in the social, economic, technological, cultural and political development in different countries and regions around the world.

First, global demographic change will bring both opportunities and challenges to social development. It is predicted that the population of the least developed countries will continue to soar in the coming decades. This will generate sufficient labor supply and possibly great potential for social development. However, for the developed countries and some relatively developed ones, continuous negative population growth and social aging remain the glaring issues. For example, the global total fertility rate fell from 2.7 in 2000 to 2.3 in 2021, and the proportion of the global population aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 9.6 percent in 2021 to 16.5 percent in 2050. China's total fertility rate was only 1.3 in 2020, making it one of the countries with ultra-low fertility rate. The proportion of the elderly population over 65 years old in China reached 15.4 percent in 2023, a characteristic of a moderately aging society.

This will be testing times for the social security and public service systems of many countries and regions. Global governance should focus on advanced institutional arrangements in areas of labor and employment, healthcare, and the protection of the rights and interests of specific groups. Life-term social policies system can support the long-term, balanced development of the global population.

Second, the demographic shift will likely transform the demographic dividend as an economic driver. The traditional demographic dividend relies mostly on high labor participation and a low dependency ratio. This will no longer be the case. With rising nutritional and health conditions around the world, life expectancy continues to improve. So does the global awareness of aging and life cycle, where the "silver economy "is expected to become a new economic driver. Higher education and human capital also make it possible to tap into the quality of the population rather than just the quantity.

Third, global demographic change may have complex impacts on areas from urbanization and migration to cultural change. In the coming three decades, the world urban population is expected to increase by 2.5 billion, deepening a shift in economic model characterized by large-scale, long-distance migration across regions and borders. For all the economic benefits, the risk of civilizational conflicts exist, which underlines the importance of acculturation, assimilation and cultural diffusion. In China, urbanization rate is projected to reach around 75 percent by 2035, bringing social fusion to the center of attention.

Fourth, global demographic change will reshape geopolitical and international order. Population has always been the key force in great power competition and national defense. The population size, distribution, quality, migration, ethnic or religious diversity can all exert an influence. The negative population growth and rapid aging currently experienced in some developed countries may lead to reduced economic and innovation capabilities, eventually undermining their political clout or international status. The developing countries will further rise in status and importance. It is foreseeable that this change must cause the reshuffling and reshaping of the international order and relations, geopolitics included, to varying degrees.

Last, global demographic changes have the potential to influence technological reform and innovation. Since the British demographer Thomas Malthus raised the famous Malthus Trap in his published work An Essay on the Principle of Population, there has been debates over the link between population growth and technological innovation. The pessimistic view holds that population explosion and industrial expansion will bring about global famine and resource depletion, while the optimistic view is that population growth will otherwise stimulate the economy and spur invention and innovation. The impact of demographic structure on technological innovation is far from decisive. The traditional view tends to believe that aging has a direct or indirect impact on technological development, but it does not exclude the complex impact of multiple factors such as education, occupation and employer features. Notably, some countries that have experienced aging problems early on have also assumed a leading role in automation, networkization, digitalization and artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, China's technology develops by leaps and bounds, coexisting with the new normal of aging and sub-replacement fertility. Therefore, it is justified to believe that population and technology are in this interactive, cohabiting and adaptable relationship. The global technological development and sustainable progress should also meet the law of global demographic change, especially the needs brought afresh by aging and sub-replacement fertility.

Lu Jiehua is director of the Institute for National Strategic Studies on Aging and a professor with the Department of Sociology at Peking University. Zhu Hui is an associate professor with the School of Sociology at Nankai University. The authors contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.