Tenuous connections

US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation mechanism will find it hard to gain traction

The United States, Japan, and the Republic of Korea held their first "Indo-Pacific" dialogue in Washington on Jan 5. In the subsequent joint statement, they expressed concerns about China's claims and actions in the South China Sea. This dialogue is considered a phased outcome of institutionalizing trilateral cooperation after the summit between the three nations at Camp David in the US.

For a long time, the US has been striving to build a trilateral alliance with Japan and the ROK. However, the ongoing tensions between Tokyo and Seoul have hindered the normalization and institutionalization of trilateral cooperation. The "America first" foreign policy of the Donald Trump administration led to fractures in alliance relations with Japan and the ROK. The inability of Japan and the ROK to manage their diplomatic conflicts resulted in the stagnation of their trilateral cooperation.

The Joe Biden administration initiated efforts to repair and strengthen the US' alliance system and reshape the US' leadership in regional and global affairs, prioritizing the establishment of the US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation mechanism, with the emphasis of trilateral cooperation shifted from addressing the nuclear threat of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to prioritizing comprehensive strategic competition with China and other strategic issues in the "Indo-Pacific".

The US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation mechanism is based on the bilateral alliances between the US and Japan, as well as the US and the ROK. It is focused on security cooperation, covering aspects including economic, political, military and technological cooperation, as well as discussions on high-quality infrastructure and supply chain resilience. After initiating its comprehensive strategic competition with China, the US is attempting to construct cooperation mechanisms and networks in as many areas and domains as possible to contain China. However, Washington is facing limitations in doing so. Therefore, the Biden administration hopes that Japan and the ROK will closely follow its strategic deployments and contribute to building multiple networks to achieve strategic goals while maintaining US leadership. In February 2022, the Biden administration put forward its "Indo-Pacific" strategy, highlighting the importance of strengthening trilateral cooperation with Japan and the ROK. Following the launch of the US' "Indo-Pacific" Economic Framework for Prosperity, both Japan and the ROK applied for membership.

Leveraging the US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation mechanism, the three countries aim to enhance their comprehensive layout in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia, serving the US strategic goals of pressuring the DPRK, containing China and countering Russia. The scope of influence is expected to expand gradually to include the entire "Indo-Pacific" region, including the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, to gain a competitive advantage against China.

Moreover, the US is actively constructing various other multilateral mechanisms under the "Indo-Pacific" framework, such as the Quad, the upgraded AUKUS, the revival of US-Philippine cooperation, and the establishment of the US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation mechanism. The US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation is expected to interact with these small multilateral mechanisms to form a decentralized and networked alliance system dominated by the US.

The construction of the US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation mechanism will intensify regional bloc confrontation and disrupt regional security and stability.

In Northeast Asia, the US is strengthening the coordinated deployment and actions of the three countries' military forces through the trilateral cooperation mechanism. With the DPRK now possessing nuclear arms, the risk of conflict is increasing on the peninsula.

In the "Indo-Pacific" region, the US intends to leverage the trilateral cooperation mechanism to coordinate with platforms such as the G7, AUKUS, Quad, and incorporate NATO into the "Indo-Pacific" strategy framework. In fact, after the Ukraine crisis, there have been higher frequency and intensity in the meetings, joint military exercises, and defense cooperation between NATO countries and Japan, the ROK, India and Australia.

In the economic and technological fields, Washington, under the guise of economic security and "de-risking", is collaborating closely with Tokyo and Seoul in strategic industries and cutting-edge technologies. They aim to jointly establish a dominant position in the high-end industry chains and high-tech fields. In doing so, they aim to reduce their dependence on China and compete for dominance in the making of regional economic and trade rules and technology standards through frameworks such as the IPEF.

Through the trilateral cooperation mechanism, the US is accentuating the "China threat" theory. On issues related to the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, the three countries are promoting security operations that align with their comprehensive strategy to exert greater pressure on China. Through the trilateral cooperation, the US is ensuring that Japan and the ROK become more deeply intertwined with its strategy to contain China. This will certainly compress the diplomatic space of both countries, impacting the development of their relations with China. More importantly, the US aims to reshape the regional landscape through the trilateral mechanism, replacing the region's focus on economic growth with a focus on "security". As a result, China will face a neighborhood environment characterized by the overstretching of national security issues and bloc confrontation.

However, the global power balance is shifting, and the trilateral cooperation mechanism between the US, Japan and the ROK faces various constraints going forward.

On the one hand, the relative strength of the US is declining, and it lacks the capacity to reshape its global hegemony. The Biden administration vigorously promotes a security strategy based on the US' alliance system, constructing alliance plus systems regionally and globally. This ambitious strategy, whether in terms of thinking or practical capabilities, can be considered unrealistic.

On the other hand, the relationship between the ROK and Japan poses a significant obstacle to the comprehensive and in-depth construction of the trilateral cooperation mechanism. There are long-term differences in strategic perceptions between Tokyo and Seoul, with the two sides having weak mutual trust. There has been a lack of strong domestic support for Yoon Suk-yeol's Japan policy. With the severe polarization of political parties in the ROK, a majority of people in the ROK are not in favor of escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The Japanese political elite also harbors mistrust toward the ROK, and it maintains reservations about the process of improving bilateral relations as it involves deep reflection on historical issues. The US claims the trilateral cooperation mechanism is irreversible, but it faces numerous challenges.

There is strong concern in both Japan and the ROK about China's significant rise in comprehensive strength, with both countries adopting a pro-US foreign policy that alienates China. However, the two countries ultimately have complex and inseparable common interests with China. Maintaining basic stability in relations and cooperation with China remains the rational choice for both countries.

The China-Japan-ROK cooperation was first initiated in 2008, aimed at building a future-oriented, all-encompassing partnership. Since then, trilateral progress has been intermittent due to various factors, but it has not come to a complete halt. Currently, all the three countries are making efforts to restore their trilateral cooperation mechanism. Additionally, China, Japan and the ROK have frequent business exchanges and significant economic interests with other Asia-Pacific countries, relying on the framework of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership for regional cooperation. There is still considerable space for trilateral cooperation among the three countries. From various perspectives, the competition and balance of multiple mechanisms are the major trends in the Asia-Pacific region. As a major country in the region, China has ample influence and a broad room for maneuver in this complex landscape.

Zhang Yunling is a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Shandong University. Yang Yanlong is a researcher at the Institute of International Studies at Shandong University. The authors contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn