Sustainable virtuous cycle

Joint efforts required to bolster the healthy and stable development of Sino-Australian ties now they have thawed.

For a considerable period of time in the 21st century, the development of China-Australia relations remained relatively positive. "Balanced diplomacy" was the fundamental stance of Australia's policies toward China and the United States. However, since 2016, China-Australia relations have rapidly deteriorated, as Australia's foreign policy has increasingly tilted toward an imbalanced state of being pro-US and anti-China, and its perception of threats from China has increased significantly.

In recent years, affected by the deterioration of China-Australia political relations and other factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, bilateral investment flows between the two countries have declined sharply, and people-to-people exchanges have been hindered. Australian officials, scholars and the public have shown a clear decrease in their willingness to participate in activities related to China, due to a significant increase in domestic political and public opinion pressure.

In contrast, China-Australia trade relations have shown relatively strong resilience. Despite a series of restrictive measures imposed since the end of 2020, their bilateral trade volume increased by 35.1 percent year-on-year in 2021, among which Australia's exports to China rose 40.6 percent. In 2022, China's imports of iron ore from Australia increased by 5.1 percent year-on-year, accounting for approximately 66 percent of its total iron ore imports. Australia remains China's largest source of iron ore, and China remains Australia's largest importer of iron ore. In 2023, the bilateral trade volume reached $230 billion, with a yearly increase of 9.8 percent.

These trends have deepened Australia's perception of contradictions with China and prompted the Anthony Albanese government to undertake a "rebalancing" of Australia's China policy. Although Australia still harbors fear and resistance toward China's rise, it recognizes the strong complementarity in the economic structure between the two countries and the importance of handling the China-Australia relationship more cautiously.

With the step-by-step settlement of bilateral trade disputes, Australia's exports to China reached A$19 billion ($12.97 billion) in March 2023, a year-on-year increase of 31 percent, the highest since 1988. At the same time, personnel exchanges and cooperation have gradually resumed between Chinese and Australian universities, think tanks, enterprises, media and civil society organizations. In November 2023, Albanese paid a successful visit to China, which injected further momentum into the rapid thawing and turnaround of China-Australia relations.

Just as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi put it in the 2023 International Situation and China Diplomacy Seminar on Jan 9, "China-Australia relations are coming back on the right track, and their comprehensive strategic partnership has been resumed, presenting a virtuous cycle of healthy and stable development".

In the foreseeable future, there are many opportunities for cooperation between China and Australia on the bilateral, regional and global levels. There is every reason to believe that healthy and stable development of China-Australia relations will bring more benefits to the people of both countries and beyond. However, the two countries still need to overcome some disruptions to achieve further improvement in their relations.

The pressure exerted by the US on Australia has escalated enormously, which has become the most significant obstacle to the development of China-Australia relations.

With the US-Australia alliance becoming a key tool for the US to implement its "Indo-Pacific" strategy and to build a "strategic containment circle" around China in the "Indo-Pacific" region, Washington has unprecedentedly upgraded the importance of Australia in its China policy.

In recent years, Australia's security anxiety has intensified tremendously, with growing concerns about becoming a target of exploitation by major powers or "the lawn under the elephants' feet". These sentiments have led to a trend of securitization in Australia's foreign policy against China, which in turn adds to China's anxiety and might further increase the danger of an insecurity spiral between the two sides.

Australia has been struggling between cultural independence and dependence since its founding. As a power in the Asia-Pacific, Australia desires to establish a relatively independent cultural identity by integrating into the region. However, as a member of the Western camp, Australia is also reluctant to sever its ties with Anglo-American culture amid fears of being completely abandoned by the West.

This dilemma has created a contradictory mindset in Australia, leading to a situation where it swings between East Asian and Western countries. From strongly supporting the US joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement and "pivoting to the Asia-Pacific", to actively participating in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and even advocated an "Asia-Pacific community", and then swinging again to be in the "vanguard" of US-led negotiations to launch the "Indo-Pacific" Economic Framework for Prosperity and cementing a nuclear submarine deal with the US and the United Kingdom under the framework of their AUKUS security partnership targeting at China, these actions have severely damaged the trust between China and Australia, which might also constrain the stable development of China-Australia relations in the long term.

With the upcoming US presidential election creating additional uncertainties, China-Australia relations might encounter more challenges in 2024. Substantial progress can only be achieved through the joint efforts of both governments and peoples.

For China, it is important to maintain strategic confidence and show patience with Australia. While seeking to stabilize China-US relations, it should avoid tying its Australia policy to its US policy. Additionally, China needs to counter the trend of "securitization "through "de-securitization" measures, such as settling bilateral disputes through equal consultation step by step. Moreover, China should keep supporting exchanges and cooperation between Chinese and Australian think tanks, universities and media, and provide more policy facilitation for Australian people to visit, invest and study in China.

For Australia, it is necessary to enhance its independent decision-making capabilities, avoid becoming a pawn in the US' strategy to contain China and to address the problem of "over-securitization" in its China policy. Canberra should view China and China-Australia relations from a more rational, pragmatic and balanced perspective and increase its strategic confidence through trust building and equal consultation with China and other stakeholders. It should also try to create a more favorable public opinion environment in Australia toward China-Australia relations, and provide more support for Australian people to learn about the real China, rather than being held hostage by Western media.

The author is an assistant research fellow at the Institute of World Economics and Politics and National Institute for Global Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn