Projected population dip may hit labor force

Census Bureau projections show the population of the United States is expected to decline.

Data show the US population is expected to peak in 2080 with 370 million people and shrink by 2100 to 366 million because of an aging population and declining birthrate. Its current population is about 332 million.

"In an ever-changing world, understanding population dynamics is crucial for shaping policies and planning resources," Sandra Johnson, a demographer at the Census Bureau, said in a news release.

"The US has experienced notable shifts in the components of population change over the last five years," she explained. "Some of these, like the increases in mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, are expected to be short-term, while others, including the declines in fertility that have persisted for decades, are likely to continue. Incorporating additional years of data on births, deaths and international migration into our projections process resulted in a slower pace of population growth through 2060 than was previously projected."

The population projection was first introduced in 2018, reflecting years of declining birthrates, higher death rates and increased reliance on immigration for population growth.

The projected population decline was seen as the only time after the recorded total decline in 1918 because of the flu pandemic and deployment of more than 1 million troops abroad.

Such a population shift may create problems for the US economy and its geopolitical standing, because fewer young people are working to support the elder generation, the Census Bureau report said, adding that government programs such as Social Security and Medicare will face higher pressure.

Slower growth

The projections also show the US population is growing more slowly compared with previous years. The yearly growth rate has dropped from 1.2 percent in the 1990s to 0.5 percent today, and it is expected to go down to 0.2 percent by 2040.

Such minor changes can accumulate over time as the predicted population in the US in 2040 is 355 million, 25 million less than the 2015 prediction.

Last year early numbers indicated the US birthrate was about 19 percent lower than it was in 2007. The death rate is still about 9 percent higher than it was in 2019, before the pandemic started. By 2038 deaths would exceed births under the current trend.

Immigration has also become a factor for population growth, but it is unpredictable because it is affected by changing laws, war, natural disasters and economic shifts.

Last year 1.3 million people immigrated to the US, 500,000 of them initially lacking legal status, the Congressional Budget Office said in January.

The new projections also indicate the aging population issue will accelerate because of low birthrates. The rising life expectancy at birth from 79.8 now to 87.8 by 2100 will contribute to the aging trend, the analysis said.

The number of people in the prime working age group, which is 25 to 54 years, is expected to start decreasing by mid-2040s because the millennial generation will be getting older. Such an aging population will also affect the US labor force.

Agencies contributed to this story.